The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Claude loses AI Diplomacy games because it refuses to deceive opponents
“I haven't seen Claude with any game yet because they won't do it. Like there's like, O three has managed to get them on board for like draws, even though they all know the only win condition in the game is, is 18 supply centers.”
Alex Duffy Jun 11, 2025 ▶ 12:36 ⚡️Launching AI Diplomacy: the hardest LLM Game Benchmark yet - Alex Duffy
Opinion
OpenAI's o3 acts as a '10-minute AGI' for human tasks
“Whether or not you want to call this, like, end minute AGI, I kind of like the phrase, 10 minute AGI, for just, like, how to think about O-three is that anything that you can do as a human in 10 minutes, O-three is usually going to be able to do reasonably wel…”
Will Brown May 9, 2025 ▶ 1:48 ⚡️Open Questions in Agentic RL — Will Brown (Prime Intellect)
Insight
Jin: RL enables models to surpass expert labelers and develop self-direction
“The model outperforming expert labelers is, is possible. The model learning, like, self-direction is, like, expected. And yeah, we've seen, like, kind of cool emergent behaviors with, like, you know, like, O-one, O-three, R-one, kind of, like, these, like, thi…”
Roger Jin Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 6:50 What is an RL environment? w/ Nous Research's Roger Jin
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