why aren't all 80 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 2 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Parakhin: Bing Sydney first launched in India using Megatron, not OpenAI
“The funny thing, I mean, the most interesting anecdote is that Sydney was first shipped in India for and it was not noticed for a long time. And first implementation of Sydney didn't even have open AI model under it. It was during Megatron. Microsoft and the N…”
Disclosure
NVIDIA mandates running OpenClaw in isolated Brev cloud VMs
“Internally people want to run this
and we know we have to be really careful from the security implications. Do we let this run on the corporate network securities guidance was, Hey, run this on breath. It's in, you know, it's a VM. It's sitting in the cloud. …”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA announces Rubin CPX as a dedicated prefill-specific hardware accelerator
“And like with our future generations, generations of hardware, we actually announced like with Rubin, this new accelerator that is pre-fill specific. It's called Rubin CPX.”
Assertion Supported
Jensen Huang prioritizes strategic investments in 'zero billion dollar markets'
“Jensen, He says, we're completely happy investing in zero billion dollar markets. We don't care if this creates revenue. It's important for us to know about this market. We think it will be important in the future. It can be zero billion dollars for a while.”
Opinion
O'Laughlin: Nvidia commands the best supply chain bar none
“I think on the infrastructure side, or sorry, on the supply chain side, bar none, NVIDIA is the best. They own the entire supply chain. They really do.”
Assertion Supported
AMD's Composable Kernel library offers functionality similar to Nvidia's CUTLASS
“And then on the AMD side, they have this composable kernel library that does something very similar.”
Assertion Supported
Sohmers: NVIDIA's TF32 is actually a 19-bit precision format
“NVIDIA's TF-thirty-two number format is a nineteen-bit number format. They just call it thirty-two-bit.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sohmers: NVIDIA will have a very good decade ahead despite startup challengers
“The reality is NVIDIA is going to have a very, very good decade ahead for them. And The market is growing so fast that all of us in the space trying to take them on can be very happy with, you know, very, very small wins in the space.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Sohmers: People will continue buying NVIDIA for AI training
“We are betting that people are going to continue to train on NVIDIA for at least the foreseeable future, where, since we're able to, you know, and I'll say, I really hope others are able to be successful in, in providing competition against NVIDIA, but Given t…”
Assertion Partly supported
Swix: Nvidia RTX 4090 prices doubled in the past year
“40 and 90 prices have doubled in the last year.”
Disclosure
Modular's Mojo and MAX are free on NVIDIA and CPUs
“The max framework and the mojo language, free to use on NVIDIA and CPUs, any scale, go nuts, do whatever you want.”
Insight
Conrad: NVIDIA avoids customer concentration to prevent hyperscaler price setting
“It's really bad for NVIDIA if you have customer concentration, and Microsoft and Google and Amazon, like, Oracle to, like, buy up your entire supply and then you have four or five customers or so who pretty much get to set prices.”
Insight
Conrad: NVIDIA launching a cloud would impair hyperscaler sales
“If they launched their own core weave, then it would make it much harder for them to sell to the hyperscalers.”
Insight
Ethan He: 64 experts is the sweet spot for MoE upcycling
“We found, 64 experts is kind of like the sweet spot. If you increase the number of experts beyond 64, it provides diminishing return.”
Assertion Supported
Ethan He: Hugging Face's sequential GEMM loop for Mixtral is inefficient
“Let's also look at the implementation of Mixtro eight by seven on Hagen-Phys transformer. You will soon notice the, in the expert operation there, You would iterate over all of the experts and compute each of the gem operations one by one. We found that this i…”
Assertion Supported
Fanelli: Singapore accounted for 15% of NVIDIA's Q3 2024 revenue
“Singapore was 15% of NVIDIA's revenue in Q three of 2024.”
Insight
Royzen: NVIDIA Remains Cloud-Agnostic Because It Wins Regardless
“At NVIDIA, They know that they're going to win regardless. So they don't care where you get the GPUs from. They're like, they're truly neutral, unlike various sales reps that you might encounter at various like clouds and, you know, hardware companies, et cete…”
Opinion
Hotz: Nvidia makes the best training chips
“NVIDIA has the best training chips.”
Assertion Supported
Hotz: Tinygrad is about 5x slower than PyTorch on Nvidia GPUs
“The correctness for both forwards and backwards passes is there, but on Nvidia, it's about five X slower than PyTorch right now.”
Disclosure
NVIDIA Cosmos trained on tens of trillions of visual tokens
“And if you look at a number of tokens we disclose that in cosmos, it's also like tens of trillions of tokens. On the visual tokens.”
Disclosure
Ethan He: NVIDIA Cosmos required labelers to describe videos for blind reconstruction
“So that's in the protocol of Cosmos labeling. We required the objective we gave to the labelers was that you have to describe the video as detailed as possible, such that a blind person hears a blob of text, can reconstruct what the video is like from their he…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ethan He: NVIDIA spent about a year building the Cosmos model
“One thing I say, like, thanks to my experience at NVIDIA, because first time when we were building Cosmos together, we built it for about a year.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA Cosmos uses 50,000 to 60,000 tokens for five seconds of video
“Yeah, for example, like in Cosmos, I think just five seconds of video is like a 50, 50 K or a 60 K number of tokens. So like, if you do 50 seconds as a 500 K tokens, if you do longer than that, easily explode.”
Disclosure
He: NVIDIA Cosmos runs in 4 to 8 steps, or 1 step for transfer
“In Cosmos, I believe we have like four steps and eight steps. If you do some simpler task, like image to image translation, it can even run in first step, that one step in, in Cosmos transfer.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Sun: NVIDIA pays heavily to purchase interactive simulation worlds for robotics
“In industry, like folks at NVIDIA are actually paying a lot of dollars to purchase these types of interactive worlds, whether it's for the sake of evaluation or training the robots or policies or models.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA chip design begins three to five years before market release
“The design process starts like- Exactly. ...three to five years before the chip gets to the market.”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA Dynamo dynamically sizes and schedules Kubernetes prefill and decode workers
“Dynamo has a set of components that A, tell you how to scale. It tells you how many pre-fill workers and decoded workers it thinks you should have. And also provides a scheduling API for Kubernetes that allows you to actually represent and affect this scheduli…”
Disclosure
NVIDIA's Brev team plans to open-source business application command-line interfaces
“We're gonna open source all of this and like, yeah, all the, I mean, they're just, they're, yeah, CLIs for the business applications.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
NVIDIA's build.nvidia.com was internally the company's largest inference deployment
“At one point, there's a website called build.nvd.com, and also for us, inference.nvd.com, that is, allows people to try models. It gives an API service, you can call the model with like a REST API, and, you know, you get a response. I ran the model site for th…”
Assertion Supported
NVIDIA's 600M Parameter Parakeet Model Tops Speech Transcription Leaderboards
“And then Parakeet is Nvidia's new speech model, speech transcription model. That's number one on the leaderboards. And it's just like very enterprise tuned, like really, really rock solid, reliable at fairly small number of weights, like six hundred million pa…”
Assertion Supported
Ben Allal: NVIDIA generated 1.9 trillion synthetic tokens for Nemotron-CC
“This is a recent paper from NVIDIA, Mnemotron CC. They took things a bit further and they generated not a few billion tokens, but 1.9 trillion tokens, which is huge.”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Royzen: NVIDIA Built Custom FasterTransformer Feature for Phind
“They actually implemented a custom feature for us in Faster Transformer which is one of their libraries... They implemented streaming generation for T-Five-based models, which we were running at the time up until we switched to GPT in In February, March of thi…”