The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Sridhar: High HLE benchmark scores do not translate to deep research products
“The benchmarks, at least the ones that we are seeing, they don't directly translate to the product. There's definitely some technical challenges that you can benchmark against, but they don't really, like if I do grade on HLE, that doesn't really mean I'm a g…”
Mukund Sridhar Feb 18, 2025 ▶ 50:03 Why is everyone cloning Deep Research?
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2028
Lambert: Academics cannot match industry compute on Humanity's Last Exam
“I just think it's kind of unlikely that we're going to win as a academic and a state of the art number because they're going to start spending millions of tokens per query. And it's just a lot of, it's a lot of compute burn. Like the getting, beating that on t…”
Nathan Lambert Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 37:12 The RLVR Revolution — with Nathan Lambert (AI2, Interconnects.ai)
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