The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not checkable as stated
GPT-5 Reproduced Lupsasca's Best Physics Paper in 30 Minutes
“Then when GPT-V came out. It was able to reproduce one of my best papers that took me a very long time to come up with, in like, 30 minutes.”
Alex Lupsasca May 5, 2026 ▶ 2:32 🔬How GPT‑5 derived new results in theoretical physics and quantum gravity — Alex Lupsasca, OpenAI
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Fanelli: Cursor Default Model Switch Cost Anthropic $200M in ARR
“When cursors switch from Sonnet to GPT-V as like the default model that was like, you know, Two hundred million our revenue for Anthropic that kind of went away and like moved on to GPT-V.”
Alessio Fanelli Sep 25, 2025 ▶ 29:57 Amp: The Emperor Has No Clothes
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brockman: Physicists say GPT-5 re-derived research insights taking months of work
“We've seen physicists starting to kick the tires on GPT-V and say that, like, hey, this thing was able to get, this model was able to re-derive an insight that took me many months worth of research to produce.”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 21:50 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Brockman: GPT-5 is OpenAI's most personalizable model to date
“And GPT-V itself is extremely good at instruction following. And so it actually is the most personalizable model that we've ever produced. You can have it operate according to whatever you prefer, just by saying it, just by providing that instruction.”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 36:13 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Bryk: Superintelligent models like GPT-5 will fail using Google Search
“You could have a world, and we are going to have this world, where you have, like, GPT-V level systems and beyond that could, like, answer any complex request. Unless it requires some, like, if you say, like you know, give me a list of all the PhDs in New York…”
Will Bryk Jan 10, 2025 ▶ 16:42 Beating Google at Search with Neural PageRank and $5M of H200s — with Will Bryk of Exa.ai
Disclosure
Brockman: OpenAI trained GPT-5 with feedback from interactive coding applications
“The second thing we did Was we really spent a long time seeing how are people using it in interactive coding applications? And just taking a ton of feedback and feeding that back into our training. And that was something we didn't try as hard in the past, righ…”
Greg Brockman Aug 15, 2025 ▶ 23:56 Greg Brockman on OpenAI's Road to AGI
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