The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Hill-Smith: Google used unpublished 32-shot CoT to claim Gemini beat GPT-4
“Back when I'm Googled a Gemini one when I ultra and needed a number that would say it was better than GPT four. And Like, constructed I think never published, like, chain of thought examples, 32 of them in every topic in MLU to run it, to get the score.”
Micah Hill-Smith Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 8:36 Artificial Analysis: The Independent LLM Analysis House — with George Cameron and Micah Hill-Smith
Assertion Contradicted
Lambert: GPT-4 Turbo Gap Over Original GPT-4 Exceeds TÜLU 2 to GPT-4 Gap
“So it's like the difference from these, the GPT-IV Turbo to like the GPT-IV that was first released is bigger than the difference from Tulu-II to GPT-IV.”
Nathan Lambert Jan 11, 2024 ▶ 1:26:04 The Origin and Future of RLHF: the secret ingredient for ChatGPT - with Nathan Lambert
Assertion Contradicted
Wagner claims Flux shipped embedded AI chat before GPT-4 released
“So I think I'm going to claim here, I think we were the first engineering tool or design tool that had an AI chat in it. We shipped that I think a month or two months before GPT-IV became publicly available.”
Matthias Wagner Nov 22, 2025 ▶ 4:18 ⚡️ Building the AI Hardware Engineer with Matthias Wagner, Co-founder of Flux
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