The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Doshi: Image Generative AI Is Stuck in a 'GPT-2 Moment'
“So I think that we continue to feel like graphics and these foundation models for anything really related to pixels, but also definitely images continues to be very under invested. It feels a little like graphics is in like this GPT two moment, right? Like eve…”
Suhail Doshi Jan 2, 2024 ▶ 18:07 The AI-First Graphics Editor - with Suhail Doshi of Playground AI
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Royzen: The leap from GPT-4 to GPT-5 will be smaller
“I think that GPT-IV, my hypothesis is that the jump from four to 4.5, or four to five, will be smaller than the jump from Three to four.”
Michael Royzen Nov 3, 2023 ▶ 37:38 Beating GPT-4 with Open Source Models - with Michael Royzen of Phind
Opinion
Byun: GPT-3 was a qualitative shift, while GPT-4 was an extension
“I think GPT-III was a big change because it kind of said, oh, now is the time to build to you that we can use AI to build these tools. And then GPT-IV was maybe a little bit more of an extension of GPT-III. It felt less like a level, GPT-III over GPT-II was li…”
Jungwon Byun Apr 11, 2024 ▶ 26:47 Supervise the Process of AI Research — with Jungwon Byun and Andreas Stuhlmüller of Elicit
Assertion Contradicted
No commercial products augmented GPT models with custom data pre-ChatGPT
“Like I saw some people doing demos, but like in like a CLI or something like that, but there was no product doing like this model, but with additional data on top of it.”
Yasser Elsaid May 2, 2026 ▶ 2:59 ⚡️ Competing with ChatGPT and Sierra, building a $10M ARR company — Yasser Elsaid, Founder, Chatbase
Opinion
McAteer: OpenAI o1 is the first model that grows more impressive over time
“O-one is actually the first model where I'm getting more impressed by it the more I use it. So, like, when ChatGPT first came out, right, I think it was GPT-III. And at first it seemed like, oh wow, this is amazing, it can actually create text that sounds like…”
Dan McAteer Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 2:10 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Polu: OpenAI's GPT-3 Was Internally Codenamed Project Nest
“Most of the compute was going to a product called Nest, which was basically GPT-free.”
Stanislas Polu Nov 11, 2024 ▶ 10:05 Agents @ Work: Dust.tt — with Stanislas Polu
Assertion Supported
Liu: Stitch Fix used Transformer models for recommendations before GPT-3
“We actually were using Transformers at Stitch Fix, like, before the GPT-III model, so we were just using Transformers for recommendation systems.”
Jason Liu Apr 24, 2024 ▶ 1:42 High Agency Pydantic over VC Backed Frameworks — with Jason Liu of Instructor
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