why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: Filtered 9B Synthetic Data Outperforms 27B Self-Generated Data
“One thing we found consistently, so here what we had two models, nine Gemma, nine B and Gemma, 27 B, and we found consistently that actually generating data from nine B in a compute match setting is always better, even better for distilling or actually improvi…”
Assertion Supported
DeepMind, Microsoft, and Meta are building or using physical science labs
“You see people like Google DeepMind, Microsoft, other places like Meta, either building their own lab or running experiments at someone else's lab to get that data back.”
Assertion Supported
DeepMind and OpenAI eliminated formal Lean translation for 2025 IMO solutions
“What surprised me is this time they don't use formal language, but instead they just use LM. And so last year when they tried to do the IMO, they need like a like a human to kind of translate the natural language. Problems to Lean, and then they use Lean to ki…”
Assertion Supported
Noam Shazeer and Jack Rae co-lead Google DeepMind's reasoning effort
“Jack Ray. Yeah. He's been a long time deep mind research scientist, was previously a pre-training person. We actually overlapped at open AI together a little bit, and then is now back at deep mind with no co-leading the reasoning effort.”
Assertion Supported
Sanseviero: Smaller Gemma 4 models process audio and 30-60 second videos
“Multimodal wise, the smaller models can understand audio Images and short videos, so, 30 to 62nd videos and audios.”
Assertion Supported
Sanseviero: Gemma 4 is Google's most capable open model yet
“Gemma four is just out. It's the most capable open model we've released so far. We already tried to compact as much intelligence per parameter as we could, bring all of these multimodal capabilities.”
Assertion Supported
Sanseviero: Gemma 4 cannot yet process video and audio simultaneously
“The other thing we do not support yet is video with audio, so we can understand, like, video input or audio input separately, but if you want to pass, like, in the same, from both the visual part and the audio part, we still need to do some improvements around…”
Assertion Supported
Mallick: Gemini Live API allows custom VAD tuning and third-party integration
“Now developers can actually tune the sensitivity on our voice activity detection model as well as, you know, how much of the prefix, like how much of a time duration at the beginning, at the start or stop of saying things. And we also have a mode where now you…”