why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: Filtered 9B Synthetic Data Outperforms 27B Self-Generated Data
“One thing we found consistently, so here what we had two models, nine Gemma, nine B and Gemma, 27 B, and we found consistently that actually generating data from nine B in a compute match setting is always better, even better for distilling or actually improvi…”
Assertion Not publicly verifiable
Morcos: Arcee 4.5B beat Gemma before reaching one trillion tokens
“It was beating Gemma pretty consistently before the one trillion mark, which was pretty cool to see.”
Opinion
Morris: Open model creators do not use differential privacy or anonymization
“I would be extremely surprised if they do any type of like private training. Like there are these mechanisms for doing like differentially private language model training, or even just anonymization in the pre-training pipeline. I bet they don't do any of that…”
Assertion Supported
Ameisen: Multi-Hop Reasoning Circuits Are Extremely Similar Across Small and Large Models
“The way the circuit looks in Gemma, like a really small model is extremely similar to the way that it looks like a huge model, which that in itself is, I think like a pretty novel discovery. It's like, oh, you have these models that are like super different. Y…”
Assertion Contradicted
Sanseviero: 31B is the largest quantized model fitting consumer GPUs
“The 31 is really like the largest model size that quantize would fit in a consumer GPU.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Jun 2026
Vibhu: Gemma Activates Abstract Behavioral Traits Over Simple Token Completion
“It also shows internally that there's more than just token completion of, you know, this plus this equals this. No, it has some under understanding of characteristics, right? Like this is a pretty stubborn dog. It has a stubborn feature. Pretty high up that ac…”
Assertion Supported
Sanseviero: Smaller Gemma 4 models process audio and 30-60 second videos
“Multimodal wise, the smaller models can understand audio Images and short videos, so, 30 to 62nd videos and audios.”
Assertion Supported
Sanseviero: Gemini Nano on Pixel and Samsung phones is built on Gemma
“If you buy a Pixel phone or a high-end Samsung, they come with a Gemini Nano, and Gemini Nano is packed into the operating system, and Gemini Nano is really built on top of Gemma.”