The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Hong: DeepSeek dissolved its formal reasoning team over strategic shift
“And we have since, for example, Deep Seek All right. Like originally having a formal team and then later dissolve that team because of strategic direction change.”
Carina Hong Jun 3, 2026 ▶ 1:14:16 Scaling Past Informal AI - Carina Hong, Axiom Math
Assertion Supported
Beauchamp: DeepSeek slashes inference costs by shrinking KV cache
“What DeepSeek have achieved that's quite special is they've got this amazing inference engine. They've been able to reduce the size of the KV cache significantly. And then by being able to do that, they're able to significantly reduce their inference costs.”
William Beauchamp Jan 26, 2025 ▶ 23:30 Outlasting Noam Shazeer, Crowdsourcing Chai AI w/ 1.4m DAU — with William Beauchamp, Chai Research
Assertion Supported
Mechanistic Interpretability Scales Without Bottlenecks to Large Models Like DeepSeek
“There's no gap for scale. Like, they've shown that even for the biggest open source models, you like, even like DeepSeq's big models, you, they can do it. And then in general, like, scaling is not the bottleneck.”
Deedy Das Nov 14, 2025 ▶ 52:11 Anthropic, Glean & OpenRouter: How AI Moats Are Built with Deedy Das of Menlo Ventures
Assertion Supported
Agarwal: DeepSeek Distilled Reasoning Models Using Correctness-Filtered Synthetic Data
“What they did was they took the best model they had, they generated a bunch of samples, they filtered them based on correctness, because these were on tasks like coding, mathematical problem solving, and a bunch of those things. So they saw whatever, what are …”
Rishabh Agarwal Mar 23, 2025 ▶ 13:57 The Magic of LLM Distillation — Rishabh Agarwal, Google DeepMind
Assertion Supported
Colvin: AI providers are centralizing around OpenAI's API standard
“I think the truth is that everyone is centralizing around OpenAI's SD API as the one to do. So DeepSeek support that. Grok with a K support that. Olama also does it. Well, I mean, if there is that library right now, it's more or less the OpenAI SDK.”
Samuel Colvin Feb 6, 2025 ▶ 30:32 Agent Engineering with Pydantic + Graphs — with Samuel Colvin, CEO of Pydantic Logfire
Assertion Supported
Zhang: DeepSeek team officially recommends SGLang as its inference engine
“That's why SGLAN is the recommended LLM engine by the DeepSeq team.”
Yining Zhang Jan 19, 2025 ▶ 28:06 DeepSeek V3, SGLang, and the state of Open Model Inference in 2025 (Quantization, MoEs, Pricing)
Assertion Supported
Soldani: 2024 open models rival frontier performance of closed models
“You have models that are, you know, reveling frontier level performance of what you can get from closed models, from like Quen, from Deep Seek. We got Lama III.”
Luca Soldani Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:15 Best of 2024: Open Models [LS LIVE! at NeurIPS 2024]
Assertion Supported
DeepSeek 128k context fits in 8GB KV cache versus Llama's 80GB
“For context like the total I think the total context length of DeepSeq is a 128,000 tokens, or it might be 256,000 with rope extension. That entire context, I think it's a 128,000, fits into eight gigabytes. And previously context, like I think the Lama four o…”
Kyle Kranen Mar 8, 2026 ▶ 52:08 Agent Inference at the "Speed of Light" — How NVIDIA moves like a $4.3 Trillion Startup
Assertion Supported
AMD funded community DeepSeek kernel development through the GPU Mode Discord
“AMD's actually done this. Like there's some deep seek, like through GPU modes, discord, there have been some like deep seek kernels that they say you have, you know, guaranteed access to compute for, write them.”
Quentin Anthony Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 57:48 How Zyphra went all-in on AMD + Why Devs feel faster with AI but are slower — with Quentin Anthony
Assertion Supported
Lambert: DeepSeek-R1 starts solving math questions immediately without explicit planning
“If you look at DeepSeq R-One and you ask it a hard math question, it's not like, here's my plan of attack. It just starts.”
Nathan Lambert Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 40:10 The RLVR Revolution — with Nathan Lambert (AI2, Interconnects.ai)
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