The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Google DeepMind's six-month internal embargo shelves commercially valuable research papers
“I mean, what's worse is the paper is actually not even being Published anymore because there's a six month embargo inside of DeepMind, right? Like we've heard about this where a paper comes out and then I think there's a six month embargo window where if anybo…”
White: ML trained on experimental data beat first-principles simulations by a large margin
“Two very well-resourced groups. They both tried different ideas, and the machine learning on experimental data beat out first principles simulation by You know, a very large margin.”
Morcos: Frontier AI lab data teams are systematically under-resourced
“I think you, what you see in all the frontier labs is that they have data teams. And if you talk to the folks that work on those data teams, what you'll kind of systematically hear is that typically they're under resourced relative to the gains that they're de…”
Polu: DeepMind IMO breakthrough relied on scaling RL and autoformalization
“I think the DeepMind team just did a good job of scaling. I think there's nothing too magical in their approach, even if it hasn't been published as a Dan Silver talk from seven days ago, where it goes a little bit into more details. It feels like there's noth…”
Dean: A one-page internal memo sparked the Gemini unification effort
“I actually wrote a one-page memo saying we were being stupid by fragmenting our resources. So in particular at the time we had you know efforts within Google research on and in the brain team in particular on large language models. We also had efforts on multi…”
Zhang confirms OpenAI's unverified IMO proofs are mathematically correct
“I read the proof that it's still correct, but it's just, like, less official, and that's why people kind of, like, kind of OpenAI received a few backlash over the weekend, and on Monday, DeepMind officially confirmed they have the gold medal and also fully ver…”
Lambert: Frontier AI labs do not recruit economics or social choice academics
“The RLHF techniques that people use were built in, like, labs like OpenAI and DeepMind, where there are some of these people, they have, they, these places do a pretty good job of trying to get these people in the door when you compare them to, like, startups,…”
White: DE Shaw Research Had Similar or Greater Funding Than DeepMind
“They had, you know, similar funding to DeepMind, probably more actually.”
Shafqat: NotebookLM Audio Combines DeepMind Voice Tech With Gemini 1.5
“Like we work with the DeepMind audio folks pretty closely. So they're always cooking up new techniques to like get better, more human-like audio. And then Gemini, 1.5 is really, really good at absorbing long context. So we sort of like generally put those thin…”