The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swyx: AI models hit a 2T parameter wall, won't reach 10T
“As far as everyone is concerned, Claude, you know, Opus 3.5 is not coming out. GPT 4.5 is not coming out. And Gemini two, like we don't have pro whatever we've hit that wall, whatever that wall is. Maybe I'll call it like the two trillion parameter wall. Like …”
Shawn Wang Jan 1, 2025 ▶ 40:13 2024 Year in Review: The Big Scaling Debate, the Four Wars of AI, Top Themes and the Rise of Agents
Opinion
Swyx: Frontier Models Exist Primarily to Distill Smaller, Usable Models
“Even GPT 4.5 is too expensive. Normally it's really gonna use it in, in any reasonable quantity. Like, you know, Claude 3.5 Opus, like if it does exist, still not like, you know, the thing that we actually use is Sonnet, right? So like, it's almost like a depl…”
Shawn Wang Mar 23, 2025 ▶ 3:58 The Magic of LLM Distillation — Rishabh Agarwal, Google DeepMind
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