The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
O'Laughlin: Anthropic does not train Claude agent teams with RL
“I have a controversial opinion that Claude does not do RL on the agent swarms or agent team.”
Rajpal: Anthropic Claude models had regressions from serving architecture changes
“Anthropix kind of cloud models kind of had a regression, right? Because they changed to a new serving architecture.”
Claude loses AI Diplomacy games because it refuses to deceive opponents
“I haven't seen Claude with any game yet because they won't do it. Like there's like, O three has managed to get them on board for like draws, even though they all know the only win condition in the game is, is 18 supply centers.”
Ameisen: LLMs use internal circuits to backwards-plan rhyming poetry lines
“And two, this plan doesn't just control, like, what you're gonna rhyme with. It's also doing what's called like backwards planning, where it's like, well, because I need to finish with green, I'm not going to say illuminating the peaceful night, because then I…”
Claude scored nearly twice as high as the next best model
“So we see that Claude right here is almost got twice the score of the nearest best model.”
Swyx: Claude wrapper Bolt.new reached $20M ARR
“The other one would be Bolt. There's a straight quad wrapper. And again, another now they've announced twenty million ARR, which is another step up from our eight million that we put on the title.”
Anthropic Claude models have lowest hallucination rates on Omniscience benchmark
“Like, one of the things that we saw in the hallucination rate is that Anthropoc's Claude models at the very left-hand side here with the lowest hallucination rates out of the models that we've evaluated Amnesians on.”
Hershey predicts the Claude stream won't reach Victory Road within 16 days
“I think we have a little ways before we can beat the game in 16 days. I do not have a lot of faith that the current stream is gonna, gonna be standing in Victory Road in 13 days.”
Anthropic's Pokémon research graph reflects a single run passing Lt. Surge
“The run that you saw that's, like, on the graph we put out alongside, like, in our research blog is, like, a single run that I have watched, like, get through At least surges Jim. And then it got a little past that. And the reason that that's where we stopped …”
Malhotra: Claude's system prompt is written in the third person
“With Claude, we notice the system prompt is written in third person. It's written in third person. It's written as, the assistant is X, Y, Z.”