why aren't all 79 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Scott Wu: AI is shifting from text completion tools to autonomous agents
“The first wave of generative AI is what I generally call these text completion products, right? And, you know, that makes a lot of natural sense if you think about it that obviously the interface of a language model is text completion, right? You give it a pre…”
Insight
Mohan: Post-acceptance code edits provide better training signal than mere acceptance rates
“One of the really beautiful parts about our product that is very different than a chat GPT is we can not only see if the acceptance happened, but if something more than the acceptance happened and it happened even more than that, right? Like, let's say you acc…”
Assertion Partly supported
Hou: Codeium is highest-rated dev tool in Stack Overflow survey
“We are the highest rated developer tool as voted in by developers in the most recent stack overflow survey. And you'll note that this is even higher than tools like chat GPT and GitHub copilot.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jul 2030
McCloy: ChatGPT will not pass user prompts to destination websites
“The reason I think it probably won't be the case in the future is for privacy reasons. So I don't think that you will see, at least in the context of the way search is working today inside like a system like ChatWD, I don't think you'll see that it's going to …”
Assertion Partly supported
McCloy: Perplexity is the second-largest AI-native search platform after ChatGPT
“Perplexity is pretty big.
So I would actually say that like perplexity is the second biggest AI native search platform after ChatVT.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
McCloy: Most high-intent commercial AI queries increasingly rely on live search
“Most of the queries that lead to action that are sort of commercial interest are increasingly using search across these systems, like for a bunch of reasons, right? Timeliness and avoiding hallucinations and so on.”
Opinion
McCloy: ChatGPT holds the most durable consumer presence among AI platforms
“ChatGPT, I would say, by far, in a way, is the thing that people think about as being an AI platform that has the strongest consumer presence and the most durable relationship with consumers.
Right.
So everything else is kind of a distant second.”
Assertion Supported
Marimo AI Completions Access In-Memory Variables and Database Connections
“What's unique about doing it in Marimo is the fact that not only does Marimo see your code, but it sees all the variables in memory and it can also see your database connections, et cetera. So it can really provide rich Rich completions.”
Insight
Lloyd: Warp builds native agent because tool-calling integration goes deeper
“The main reason is like, we feel like the integration can go way, way deeper. If warp itself is the thing driving the interaction primarily because of like the, Type of tool calling that we can do, like, directly in Warp.”
Prediction Held up
Packer: ChatGPT will likely use sleep-time compute to learn offline
“Like if you activate sleep time compute on a chatbot like ChatGPT, it can like learn about you as you're not on ChatGPT.com. I think that's, you know, kind of what they're probably going to try to do. That's the direction they're going in.”
Disclosure
OpenAI releases its Operator computer use tool to API developers
“And then we're also launching our computer use tool. So this is the tool behind the operator product in ChatGPT. So that's coming to developers today.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Nguyen: Canvas and Tasks Will Evolve ChatGPT into Something Completely New
“There are different types of like. Features like Canvas, tasks, but all those components that go, they compose together to evolve ChatGPT into something completely new, I think, in the new year.”
Opinion
McAteer: OpenAI o1 is the first model that grows more impressive over time
“O-one is actually the first model where I'm getting more impressed by it the more I use it. So, like, when ChatGPT first came out, right, I think it was GPT-III. And at first it seemed like, oh wow, this is amazing, it can actually create text that sounds like…”
Insight
Mohan: IDEs evaluate AI models better by tracking post-acceptance edits
“One of the really beautiful parts about our product that is very different than a chat GPT is we can not only see if the acceptance happened, but if something more than the acceptance happened and it happened even more than that, right? Like, let's say you acc…”
Insight
Crivello: Early AI Agent Builders Overestimated LLM Capabilities
“I think many people, when they started working on agents, they were very LLM-peeled and ChatGPT-peeled, right? They got ahead of themselves in a way, and as included, and they thought that agents were actually and LLMs were actually more advanced than they act…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chiang: Vicuna Showed Open-Weight Models Could Match ChatGPT Quality
“And people were very excited about it because it kind of like demonstrate open way model can reach this conversation capability similar to ChatGPT.”
Assertion Supported
Weil: ChatGPT supports over 200 million weekly active users
“As we, you know, we support over two hundred million people every week on ChatGPT.”
Disclosure
Alessio Fanelli canceled ChatGPT subscription, switching to Claude for podcast workflows
“I canceled chat GBD a while ago. Really small podcaster run for Latent Space. It runs both on Claude and on OpenAI and Claude is definitely better most of the time.”
Assertion Supported
Scialom: Meta had to reinvent scaling RLHF without published frontier research
“You have just the basics, but then when it comes to, like, ChatGPT or GPT Instruct or Cloud, No one published the details there. And so we had to reinvent the wheel there in a very short amount of time.”
Assertion Supported
Lambert: Anthropic, ChatGPT, and Bard Use Post-Generation Moderation Classifiers
“Anthropic and ChatGPT and Bard almost surely have a classifier after, which is like, is this text good? Is this text bad?”
Disclosure
Ruiz: tldraw is discussing a potential ChatGPT integration with OpenAI
“Hey, I'm talking to the good folks over at OpenAI tomorrow. Fingers crossed. Maybe we maybe we get it in, inside of ChatGPT or something.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Most Open-Source LLMs Fall Flat Outside English-Speaking Nations
“Beyond OpenAI's model, and beyond ChatGPT and Claudia, the two big models, right? Outside of the English speaking nations, right? A lot of the open source models really fall flat.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Swyx: Generated Playable 3D Board Game in ChatGPT Using 1.7B Tokens
“So over the weekend, I took like, 30 photos and just threw it into ChatGPT. 1.7 billion tokens later, out comes this site with a fully playable thing with three D block placement and everything because it requires physical blocks and I needed friends to train …”
Assertion Supported
Kant: Zhipu AI began developing models years before ChatGPT
“They started years before ChatGPT.”
Disclosure
Krause: Radical AI uses ChatGPT and Claude rather than custom LLMs
“We don't build custom LLMs. Of course, we use ChatGPT or Claude.”
Disclosure
Wu: OpenAI has no current plans to become a generic IdP
“Direct answer is like no plans right now, of course but I actually think we currently have some version of this, which is our partnership with Apple because with Apple, you can actually sign in to your ChatGPT account, and some of that identity does carry with…”
Assertion Supported
McCloy: ChatGPT personalization and custom preferences directly alter AI search retrieval and sources
“ChatGPT personalization, memories, just explicit preferences, if you set them up, do definitely affect the results you get. Now, Again, obviously, there's, they're still using traditional search, so the search index itself is not necessarily personalized, but …”
Disclosure
GPT-4.1 powers OpenAI API while enhanced memory remains ChatGPT-exclusive
“So, 4.1 is powering the API, whereas the enhanced memory is, is ChatGPT only.”
Assertion Supported
Hugging Face finds LLM proxy words jumped in Common Crawl after ChatGPT
“For example, here we measured like these words ratio in different dumps of common crawl, and we can see that like the ratio really increased after chat GPT's release.”
Assertion Supported
Swyx: ChatGPT rewrote its frontend from Next.js to Remix
“Recently ChatGPT just rewrote from Next.js to Remix.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
ChatGPT's launch caused Postgres bottlenecks by reusing API developer accounts
“Surprisingly there were a lot of Postgres issues when ChatGPT came out because the accounts for like ChatGPT were tied to the accounts in the API. And so you're basically creating a developer account to log into ChatGPT at the time, because it's just what we h…”