The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Insight
Swyx: The 'GPU smiling curve' rewards infrastructure and user-facing apps over middle-tier models
“I kind of call this the GPU smiling curve where the edges do well, cause you're either close to the machines and you're like number one on the machines, or you're like close to the customers and you're number one on the customer side. And the people who are in…”
Shawn Wang Jan 1, 2025 ▶ 44:52 2024 Year in Review: The Big Scaling Debate, the Four Wars of AI, Top Themes and the Rise of Agents
Opinion
Chintala: LMSYS leaderboard is biased and misses major use cases
“The LLSS leaderboard is the best thing we have right now to understand whether a model is better or not versus another model, but it's also biased and only having a sliver of view into how people actually use these models. Like, the people who actually end up …”
Soumith Chintala Mar 6, 2024 ▶ 1:19:50 Open Source AI is AI we can Trust — with Soumith Chintala of Meta AI
Disclosure
Beauchamp: Chai spends $40,000 daily on paid user acquisition
“Right now we're spending 40,000 dollars a day on user acquisition. That's still only half of what, like, Character AI or Talkie may be spending.”
William Beauchamp Jan 26, 2025 ▶ 37:11 Outlasting Noam Shazeer, Crowdsourcing Chai AI w/ 1.4m DAU — with William Beauchamp, Chai Research
Insight
Casado: Large AI model deals blur traditional venture and growth investing
“Take like the character around, right? These tend to be like pre monetization, but the dollars are large enough that you need to have a larger fund and the analysis, you know, because you've got lots of users because this stuff has such high demand requires mo…”
Martin Casado Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 1:57 Inside AI’s $10B+ Capital Flywheel — Martin Casado & Sarah Wang of a16z
Assertion Supported
Beauchamp: Character.AI launched voice at least nine months after Chai
“They launched it. I think they launched it at least nine months after us.”
William Beauchamp Jan 26, 2025 ▶ 38:53 Outlasting Noam Shazeer, Crowdsourcing Chai AI w/ 1.4m DAU — with William Beauchamp, Chai Research
Disclosure
Wang: a16z invested in Character.AI in January 2023 before Google deal
“So we invested in character in January, 23, which feels like eons ago. I mean, three years ago, feels like lifetimes ago, but and then they did the IP licensing deal with Google in August, 20 four.”
Sarah Wang Feb 19, 2026 ▶ 11:38 Inside AI’s $10B+ Capital Flywheel — Martin Casado & Sarah Wang of a16z
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