why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Cameron: Model performance correlates with total parameters, not active parameters
“We, in our benchmark, see a lot of performance correlated more with total parameters than active, and not that correlated with how sparse like the models are. Our accuracy benchmark is part of a omniscience. It's very correlated with total. It's not correlated…”
Assertion Supported
Cameron: General model intelligence does not correlate with hallucination rates
“One interesting aspect is that we've found that there's not really a, not a strong correlation between intelligence and hallucination rate. That's to say that the smarter the models are in a generalist sense isn't correlated with their ability to, when they do…”
Assertion Supported
Cerebras leads all Artificial Analysis inference benchmarks by a large margin
“I think also just go up and look at artificial analysis. Wherever we are, we're the fastest not by a little bit, but by a lot.”
Assertion Supported
Anthropic Claude models have lowest hallucination rates on Omniscience benchmark
“Like, one of the things that we saw in the hallucination rate is that Anthropoc's Claude models at the very left-hand side here with the lowest hallucination rates out of the models that we've evaluated Amnesians on.”
Assertion Supported
GPT-4-level intelligence is now over 100 times cheaper than at launch
“The, like, one fact on that is that you can get intelligence at the level of GPT-IV for over a hundred times cheaper than GPT-IV was at launch right now.”
Assertion Supported
AI2's OLMo 3 32B leads Artificial Analysis's 18-point Openness Index
“It's out of 18 currently. And so we've got an openness index page, but essentially these are points. You get points for being more open across these different categories and the maximum you can achieve is 18. So AI two with their extremely open OMO three, 32 B…”
Assertion Supported
Reasoning models consume 10x more tokens on average than non-reasoning models
“So, earlier this year, and probably when you and George last spoke for the AI engineers world's fair, we had this great slide that was super easy, where we would show that the average reasoning model is using 10 times the number of tokens per query in our inte…”
Assertion Supported
Hill-Smith: OpenAI Was Untouchable for Well Over a Year
“If we go back even a little bit before then, we're in the era where, when you look at this chart, like, OpenAI was untouchable for well over a year.”
Assertion Supported
swyx: Artificial Analysis video arena uses pre-generated videos instead of user inputs
“So like, for example, for AA, their video arena is pre-generated videos. You can't enter in your own video.”