The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2029
Anthropic will become a trillion-dollar company within four years of founding
“Have you met Dario? Dario's a scientist. He's gone from zero to like what will soon be a trillion dollar company in four years.”
Anjney Midha Jun 18, 2026 ▶ 36:45 Why AI Labs With Unlimited GPUs Still Fail — Anjney Midha, AMP
Prediction Open · timeframe Nov 2030
Anthropic and OpenAI will never open-source their high-performance inference kernels
“The high performance inference kernels that sort of drive a lot of, you know, anthropic and open AI and stuff, their models, those aren't open source. They're not going to be open source.”
Quentin Anthony Nov 3, 2025 ▶ 40:52 How Zyphra went all-in on AMD + Why Devs feel faster with AI but are slower — with Quentin Anthony
Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2028
Swyx: Anthropic and OpenAI will launch automated API model routing
“And so I pick and OpenAI have both keys that model routing on APIs already. And so I think they'll launch them, especially at some point where you can sort of prioritize the three tradeoffs that are in model routing, cost, speed, intelligence.”
Shawn Wang Jan 17, 2025 ▶ 23:35 OpenAI o1 isn’t a chat model (and that’s the point)
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