why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Cooper: Agentic workloads will destroy traditional static AWS instances
“I think the era of, like, I have an AWS instance, and I'm going to, you know, get four vCPU and 16 gigs of RAM, It's going to get, like, completely destroyed, right? Because it's like, if you do that for agents or anything else like that, you now need a thousa…”
Opinion
Notion Will Beat Frontier Labs in Collaboration Like Datadog Beat AWS
“Datadog could not exist without cloud storage, right? That it's kind of fundamental that that works. And AWS has like a cloud watch product, but Datadog is an expert on understanding how people want observability on the products they launch. And we're experts …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Howard: Answer.AI runs fully in-house stack without AWS or Google Cloud
“This group of, which has averaged about 10 to 12 people, currently nine, I think, have built a pretty Transformational and complex piece of software, which we can do a quick demo of later if you're interested. Using a complete web application development platf…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Goyal: Public clouds fail to match direct OpenAI endpoint experience and capacity
“It hasn't been a smooth journey for people to get the capacity on public clouds that they're able to get through, you know, OpenAI directly. I mean, I think a lot of this is changing, catching up, et cetera. But it hasn't been perfectly smooth. And I think the…”
Opinion
Albrecht: Training on AWS prevents diagnosing low-level hardware errors
“And if we're just using, you know, AWS or some other cloud provider, These errors are still going to be there, and you're gonna have no way to know and no way to debug this and no way to diagnose what's going wrong.”
Assertion Supported
Ethan He: Storing and moving video datasets costs millions per month
“So, so it's like just storing, storing the network, those costs, it's just I guess it would be a few millions per month to just storing everything, not to mention the GPU costs.”
Disclosure
Turbopuffer Bought Oregon Dark Fiber to Serve Notion Across Clouds
“It started getting really painful in like mid-twenty-twenty-four, because we were closing deals with Notion actually, that was running in AWS, and we're like, trust us, you really want us to run this in GCP?
And they were like, no, I don't know about that, lik…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Modal Users Save Money on Inference Despite Higher GPU Rates
“In many cases, like users who do inference on those platforms or those clouds even though we charge a slightly higher price per, per GPU hour, a lot of users like moving their large scale inference use cases to model, like end up saving a lot of money because …”
Opinion
AWS Has Always Struggled With Developer Experience
“AWS has always like struggled with developer experience”
Assertion Supported
Anthropic model fine-tuning will be offered through AWS Bedrock
“They are partnered with AWS, and it's going to be in bedrock. As far as I know, I think that's true.”
Insight
Snowflake Proved Layer-Two Clouds Can Win on Developer Experience
“And I think Snowflake, you know, to me won because like, I mean, in the end, like AWS makes all the money anyway, like, and like Snowflake just had the ability to like focus on like developer experience or like, you know, or user experience. And to me, like re…”
Assertion Supported
Eskildsen: AWS S3 Only Achieved Strong Consistency in December 2020
“S III only became consistent in December of twenty-twenty.”
Assertion Supported
Eskildsen: Oregon GCP-to-AWS latency is roughly 14ms due to Seattle routing
“Like U.S. East, the Google, like the GCP and AWS data centers are like within a millisecond on each other on the public exchanges. But in Oregon, uniquely the GCP data center sits like a couple hundred kilometers, like east of Portland and the AWS region sits …”
Assertion Contradicted
AWS has about 20,000 private equity-backed customers
“And what's interesting is Amazon has about AWS has about 20,000 customers that are backed by PE firms.”
Disclosure
AWS imposed a two-year non-compete clause during its Fig acquisition
“When we got acquired by AWS, we actually had a non-compete for our product for two years. And so I've got 12 days until that non-compete expires.”