The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Andreessen: Three-year-old Nvidia chips make more money today than when new
“The current models are getting better faster at such a rate that if you are running an NVIDIA, if you're running an NVIDIA inference chip today that's three years old, you're making more money on it today than you did three years ago. Because the pace of impro…”
Marc Andreessen Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 23:23 Marc Andreessen introspects on Death of the Browser, Pi + OpenClaw, and Why "This Time Is Different"
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Andreessen: AI will never transform existing US K-12 public classrooms
“How are we going to apply AI in education? The answer is we're not because it's a literal government monopoly. It is never going to change the end, and there is nothing to do. By the way, you can create an entirely new school system. Like that's the one thing …”
Marc Andreessen Apr 3, 2026 ▶ 1:15:04 Marc Andreessen introspects on Death of the Browser, Pi + OpenClaw, and Why "This Time Is Different"
Assertion Contradicted
Hill-Smith: Google used unpublished 32-shot CoT to claim Gemini beat GPT-4
“Back when I'm Googled a Gemini one when I ultra and needed a number that would say it was better than GPT four. And Like, constructed I think never published, like, chain of thought examples, 32 of them in every topic in MLU to run it, to get the score.”
Micah Hill-Smith Jan 9, 2026 ▶ 8:36 Artificial Analysis: The Independent LLM Analysis House — with George Cameron and Micah Hill-Smith
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Swix: OpenAI will issue a cryptocurrency token to fund compute
“There is still one more shoe to drop, which is the non sovereign wealth funding that open AI needs to get, which they've promised to drop by the end of this year. And my money is on, they have to do a coin. Like it's, I'm not a crypto guy at all, but like, y…”
Shawn Wang Oct 16, 2025 ▶ 49:13 Why RL Won — Kyle Corbitt, OpenPipe (acq. CoreWeave)
Assertion Contradicted
Feldman: Cerebras is 20 times faster than Nvidia B200 GPUs
“Really focused on performance, both for training and for inference. You think 20 times faster than Nvidia B 200 GPUs and it's been an amazing run.”
Andrew Feldman Oct 1, 2025 ▶ 3:05 ⚡️Raising $1.1b to build the fastest LLM Chips on Earth — Andrew Feldman, Cerebras
Assertion Contradicted
Bachman: Models claiming 256k+ context use windowed transformers, discarding data
“Anybody who says they're using a transformer With a context length of, you know, 256,000 or more, they're not using a true transformer. What they're using is a windowed transformer that essentially throws out a huge amount of its information at various layers …”
Diego Bachman Sep 23, 2025 ▶ 2:58 ⚡️ Beyond Transformers with Power Retention
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