Swyx and Alessio Fanelli review the rapid progress of frontier models on the SWE-bench software engineering benchmark throughout 2024.
Opinion
Google's internal compute credit market caused it to miss GPT
“This is a thing that has been tried internally within Google, and it led to Google missing GPT.”
Opinion
Swix: Standalone Vector Databases Are Over as a Category
“Everyone has vector indexes now, but like, I think it's fair to say vector databases as a standalone category are over.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swix: Pull requests and code reviews are dying, replaced by prompt requests
“The pull request is dying. Yeah. Right? It's going to be the prompt request. And then beyond that, code review is also kind of dying”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Swix: OpenAI will issue a cryptocurrency token to fund compute
“There is still one more shoe to drop, which is the non sovereign wealth funding that open AI needs to get, which they've promised to drop by the end of this year.
And my money is on, they have to do a coin.
Like it's, I'm not a crypto guy at all, but like, y…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swyx: AI models hit a 2T parameter wall, won't reach 10T
“As far as everyone is concerned, Claude, you know, Opus 3.5 is not coming out. GPT 4.5 is not coming out. And Gemini two, like we don't have pro whatever we've hit that wall, whatever that wall is. Maybe I'll call it like the two trillion parameter wall. Like …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Swyx predicts coding SaaS will outlive all other SaaS
“Coding SAS will be the last SAS in the world because all the other SAS will just be buildable via coding SAS.”