The Wisdom Wall

“what people really want in their life is they don't seem to care about how happy they'll be. They seem to want to be satisfied with their life. They seem to want to have a good story about their life.”

“I think changing behavior is extremely difficult. There are a few tips and, you know, a few guidelines about how to do that, but anybody who is very optimistic about changing behavior is just deluded. It's, it's hard to change other people's behavior. It's very hard to change your own.”

“I would say that independent, clear thinking is, to a first approximation, impossible. I mean, in the sense that, you know, we believe in things most of the time, not because we have good reasons to believe them. If you ask me for reasons, I'll explain you. I'll, I'll always find a reason, but the reasons are not the…”

“If you really want to improve the quality of decision making, use algorithms. I mean, whenever, wherever you can, uh, if you can replace judgments by, by rules and algorithms, they'll do better.”

“I'm much more hopeful about organizations, because organizations think more slowly, and they have procedures for thinking, and so you can control the procedures. Individual judgment is really hard to fix. Not impossible.”

“So, when I was teaching negotiations, I would say somebody does that to you, comes up with a number that's absurd. I would say, lose your temper. Make a scene. Say, I will not start the conversation from that number. It's an absurd number. I don't want to. Let's erase that number.”

“Emotions get in the way, and I would say that independent clear thinking Is, to first approximation, impossible. I mean, in the sense that, you know, we believe in things most of the time, not because we have good reasons to believe them. If you ask me for reasons, I'll explain you. I'll, I'll always find a reason, but…”

“If you really want to improve the quality of decision making, use algorithms. I mean, whenever, wherever you can, uh, if you can replace judgments by, by rules and algorithms, they'll do better. Now, there's big social costs to trusting, allowing algorithms to make decisions, but, but the decisions are likely to be…”

“you look at all those people, all those billionaires working their heads off, and they're clearly not doing this because they need more money. They're trying to get more money, and they're trying to get more money because that would be an indication that they're good at what they do. I think mostly it's a proxy.”

“I think changing behavior is extremely difficult. There are a few tips and, you know, a few guidelines about how to do that, but anybody who is very optimistic about changing behavior is just deluded. It's, it's hard to change other people's behavior. It's very hard to change your own.”

“And it turns out that you can really expect losers, potential losers, to fight a lot harder than potential winners. And that's the reason that reforms so frequently fail, and that when they succeed, they're almost always way more expensive than anticipated, and they're more expensive because you have to compensate the…”

“we believe in things most of the time, not because we have good reasons to believe them. If you ask me for reasons, I'll explain you. I'll, I'll always find a reason, but the reasons are not the causes of our beliefs. We have beliefs because mostly we believe in some people, and we trust them, and we adopt their…”

“If you really want to improve the quality of decision making, use algorithms. I mean, whenever, wherever you can, uh, if you can replace judgments by, by rules and algorithms, they'll do better.”

“So in general, you know, more educated people make better judgments, I think, on average, but people decide I'm going to make better judgments. I don't think that's very hopeful. I'm much more hopeful about organizations, because organizations think more slowly, and they have procedures for thinking, and so you can…”

“I think it's pretty clear that people prefer leaders who are intuitive and who are overconfident. Uh, leaders who deliberate too much are viewed with suspicion, you know.”

“psychologists live in a, when they hook up their hypotheses, they're in a Within subject situation, but then they make guesses about what will happen between subjects, and they're completely lost between clear intuitions and strong intuition. We have no way of calibrating ourselves. So that makes us wildly…”

“Kurt Lewin's insight was that this is not what you should do. You should actually work on the restraining forces and try to make them weaker, and that's a beautiful point, and he showed, he had that image that, you know, I've had since I was an undergraduate, and I'm not sure actually whether it was his image or…”

“And it turns out that you can really expect losers, potential losers, to fight a lot harder than potential winners. And that's the reason that we form so frequently fair, and that when they succeed, they're almost always way more expensive than anticipated, and they're more expensive because you have to compensate the…”

“That when you are making decisions, you should think of options as if they were candidates. So you should break, break it up into dimensions, evaluate each dimension separately, then look at the profile, and, and the key is, delay your intuition. Don't try to form an intuition quickly, which is what we normally do.…”

“the person who moves first in a negotiation has an advantage. Because it, the first number changes everybody's view of what is considered plausible. So it moves things in that direction.”

“the best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression. Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive. It doesn't recognize regression to the mean.”

“It's beautiful because when people are coming close to a decision, it becomes Difficult to raise doubts or to raise questions. People who are slowing the group down when the group is nearing a decision are procedures really, you know, it's annoying, you know, there's, you want to get rid of them. And the premortem…”

“That when you are making decisions, you should think of options as if they were candidates. So you should break, break it up into dimensions, evaluate each dimension separately, then look at the profile, and, and the key is, delay your intuition. Don't try to form an intuition quickly, which is what we normally do.…”

“happiness is mostly social. It's, you know, it's being with people you love. Who love you back. That's, that's a lot of what happiness is. Life satisfaction is much more conventional. It's to be successful. And, you know, so it's money, education, prestige, that sort of thing is what life satisfaction is about.”

“And what we tend to do when we want to move people from A to B is we push them. We add to the driving forces. And Kurt Lewin's insight was that this is not what you should do. You should actually work on the restraining forces and try to make them weaker.”

“That when you are making decisions, you should think of options as if they were candidates. So you should break, break it up into dimensions, evaluate each dimension separately, then look at the profile, and, and the key is, delay your intuition. Don't try to form an intuition quickly, which is what we normally do.…”

“In, in general, you know, if you are, if you're the head of a group that makes decisions, one of your missions would be to protect the dissenters. Because they're very valuable, and you should make it painless to dissent, or as painless as possible, because it's hard to dissent. It's painful and costly, so protecting…”

“the person who moves first in a negotiation has an advantage. Because it, the first number changes everybody's view of what is considered plausible. So it moves things in that direction.”

“the best prediction, the best guess is always less extreme than your impression. Intuitive prediction is, as we say, not regressive. It doesn't recognize regression to the mean, but statistics is statistics, and in statistics, things are less extreme”

“That negotiation is not about trying to convince the other guy. It's about trying to understand them. So again, it's slowing yourself down, it's not doing what comes naturally, because trying to convince them is applying pressure. Arguments, promises, and threats are always applying pressure. And what you really want…”

“certainly anything that threatens the leader is not going to be adopted, and, and leaders may not want something that threatened their subordinates either. People are really very worried about embarrassment.”

“So wherever our rule is that wherever there is judgment, there is noise and more of it than you think.”

“you look at all those people, all those billionaires working their heads off, and they're clearly not doing this because they need more money. They're trying to get more money, and they're trying to get more money because that will be an indication that they're good at what they do. I think mostly it's a proxy.”

“behaviors don't necessarily reflect the personality, but behaviors have a lot to do with the situation. And so if people behave in strange ways, look at the situation they're in, and what are the pressures in the situation that make them act as well. So there is a bias that the social psychologists, well-known social…”

“we speak of judgment as measurement, but it's measurement where the measuring instrument is your mind, but you do it informally. And because you do it informally, people are going to, are not necessarily going to agree, so wherever we say it's a matter for judgment, we're allowing for differences, for variability.”

“I think it's pretty clear that people prefer leaders who are intuitive and who are overconfident. Uh, leaders who deliberate too much are viewed with suspicion, you know.”

“That when you're going to be discussing a topic, and it's known in advance, and people are in sense of material to think about the topic, that you may want them to write down their decision, the decision they are in favor of, before the discussion starts. That has many advantages. It's going to give you a broader…”

“You, you would want to say what were the main arguments, pro and con? What were the alternatives that were considered? No, it doesn't have to be very detailed, but it should be enough so that you can come later and debrief yourself.”

“certainly anything that threatens the leader is not going to be adopted, and, and leaders may not want something that threatened their subordinates either. People are really very worried about embarrassment.”

“behaviors don't necessarily reflect the personality, but behaviors have a lot to do with the situation.”

“Very quickly you form an impression, and then you spend most of your time confirming it, instead of collecting evidence. And so, if accidentally your impression was in the wrong direction, you're going to confirm it, and you don't give yourself a chance to correct it.”

“so it's harder to recognize very good judgment, but it's fairly easy to see, you know, what goes wrong, and there are quite a few ways for judgment to go wrong.”

“And the premortem legitimizes that sort of dissent and that sort of doubt. Not only legitimizes it, you know, it rewards it. And so that's a very good idea. I don't, you know, I don't think that it's going to prevent people from making mistakes, big mistakes, but it could certainly, it will alert people to possible…”

“when you're going to be discussing a topic, and it's known in advance, and people have been sent some material to think about the topic, that you may want them to write down their decision, the decision they are in favor of, before the discussion starts. That has many advantages. It's going to give you a broader…”

“I would advise people who make a lot of decisions to keep track. Their decisions and of how they turned out. So that later you can come and, and evaluate your procedures and, and, and see whether there is anything that is in common with those decisions that turned out well and then not so well and so on. People hate…”

“In, in general, you know, if you are, if you are the head of a group that makes decisions, one of your missions would be to protect the dissenters, because they're very valuable, and You should make it painless to be sent, or as painless as possible, because it's hard to be sent. It's painful and costly, so protecting…”

“you would want to say, what were the main arguments, pro and con? What were the alternatives that were considered? You know, it doesn't have to be very detailed. But it should be enough so that you can come later and debrief yourself.”