The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 650 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brockman: OpenAI board gave zero explanation when firing Altman and removing Brockman
“I was told that the board has decided That Sam would be removed, and effectively the message that I got was the same messaging that was in the public post, and I asked if I could have any more information. I was told no, not right now, and I pressed on that ma…”
Poilievre: Mark Carney holds 90% of assets in US, dodges Canadian taxes
“Here's Mark Carney, the guy who moved his corporate headquarters to the US, who has 90% of his assets in the US who You know, he, Carney dodges his taxes in Canada by putting his, putting them in the Caribbean.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Western governments will lose battle against decentralized network elite
“And I think that Western governments will lose. It's going to be super nasty and super gnarly, but on balance, they will lose because their ideology is not one that attracts the very top talent.”
Srinivasan: Bitcoin Is on Track to Become the 'Government of Governments'
“Bitcoin, the reason I say Bitcoin specifically is it's, you know, it's on track. We will see if it can actually get there. Cause it's got various kinds of issues, you know, privacy and other kinds of things that, you know, but It's on track to be the governmen…”
Parrish: Snowden's leak of exploitation techniques cost people lives
“You can just reveal the details of the programs, but the actual techniques that he revealed, the software techniques, the exploitation techniques that, I mean, that, that definitely cost people lives that had a huge impact on people working there.”
Pincus: Zynga had a $400M handshake deal to acquire Supercell
“And I had a handshake with Ilka, the founder and CEO, to buy the company for four hundred million in cash.”
Brockman: Claims that OpenAI data centers consume massive water are misinformation
“Like a good example is data centers and water usage. Like that, that's something that people talk about a lot, but actually our data centers use incredibly little water, right? That's actually misinformation that they use a lot.”
Liemandt: 200-Student School Achieves More Perfect Scores Than 100K-Student District
“And so we get more hundreds on state standardized tests in a building of 200 people than a school district of a 100,000.”
Liemandt: Elite private school students with A's test years behind
“The high and private schools are all lying to their parents by giving kids A's when they don't deserve them. So like we pulled in, you know, so we had hundreds of kids join, you know, whatever, couple months ago across the country. Right. And these are people …”
Liemandt: University 100-series lecture classes will disappear due to AI tutors
“A hundred series classes in university are going to go away. Like as soon as everybody figures out this AI tutor stuff, they're just going to go away.”
Liemandt: Alpha School loses about 50% of educators over learning accountability
“We lose about 50% of our educators when we tell them they're accountable for the kid learning.”
Liemandt: Alpha Fifth Graders Beat Wharton MBAs on Teamwork and Leadership Assessments
“We have quantified all the metrics on the life skills, right? So I know it's not just, oh yeah, our kids have grit, or oh, they're good public speakers. I'm like, no, everybody in our class scored 95% on RI, and every fifth grader beat a Wharton MBA in teamwor…”
Tenev: Robinhood does not have any business with hedge funds
“We don't really have any business with hedge funds.”
Poilievre: Temporary foreign workers are paid below prevailing wages and suppress employment
“There are temporary foreign workers who are making less than the, in reality, less than the prevailing wage and driving wages down and jobs out.”
Poilievre: Northwest BC pipeline would generate $30B annually in exports
“You got one pipeline to Northwest British Columbia that the liberals blocked and that I'm pushing for that would move a million barrels and 30 a day and thirty billion dollars a year overseas. That would be the single biggest boost to overseas exports in the h…”
A CEO's human remorse has never lost a company a court case
“In practice, I've never seen someone lose a case because the CEO expressed human remorse in And empathy, and that was the thing that made them lose in the courtroom.”
U.S. tariffs are causing Flexport customers to halt domestic manufacturing
“I haven't met anyone who said, oh, because of these tariffs, I'm gonna start doing production in the U.S. I've read some headlines on it, and they've done some White House announcements and things, but like, those aren't my customer base. And my customer base …”
Hastings: Teachers will stop instructing and evolve into social-emotional motivators as AI teaches
“Well, the teacher will evolve to be a little more like a social worker and a motivator so they're not actually giving the instruction in that long-term case. All the AI is doing that, and they're doing the social emotional learning.”
Wolfe: LLMs will trend toward zero and become commoditized
“Being able to do that is the real gold, and the large language models are effectively, like, over time, I think, going to trend toward zero in a commodity excavator of that data.”
Bryan Johnson: Giving plasma to my father slowed his aging by 25 years
“When I gave my father plasma, my father's speed of aging slowed by the equivalent of 25 years. So from a 71 year old to a 46 year old, and those results remained the stable for six months, which is the last measurement we did.”
Kelly: AI will never escape human control
“I don't believe AI is ever going to be out of our control in the sense of, yes, I mean, there may be occasions when it does something, but we're going to be quick to correct it and say, no, no.”
Kelly: Bottom-up neural nets will never achieve full AI without top-down control
“That bottom up
Will take you much further than you thought you could go, but will never take you all the way to where you want to go. So Wikipedia, this classic bottom-up thing, over time, there's a more and more top-down editorial control, and eventually, ov…”
Kelly: AI-based religions will inevitably emerge first in China and Russia
“It would not surprise me to see
Some new religions based around AI emerging in the kind of vacuum of the waning of the established religions.
And let me say one last thing.
And I would expect it to see these first in China and maybe Russia because they have a …”
Karp: I fully reversed degenerative blindness in two months via lifestyle changes
“After about two months of this my vision started coming back, and nobody believed it, and thankfully, there was an empirical test that the ophthalmologist can do, That basically can show the progression of your blindness. It's not like, do you see, do you not …”
The European energy crisis sparked by Russia may solve climate change
“Europe's dependence on Russia for natural gas pipelines plus the act of aggression by Russia may actually cause climate change to be solved, which is, like, an unbelievable story when you're looking at this.”
The next generation of humans will definitively achieve biological immortality
“Hey, the future's fantastic, and we'll probably become immortal relatively soon, and all these kind of things and maybe not us, but our children definitely will.”
Parrish: Remote workers will end up working for in-office colleagues
“Oh, I just said the people who don't go back to the office are going to end up working for the people that do.”
Kunal Shah: India's Per Capita Income Growth Will Never Match China's
“And therefore, a lot of Western markets love to come to India and say, oh, India is the next China. It's not, because our per capita income is never going to beat and grow like China, because before China started becoming affluent, 96% of Chinese urban women w…”
Sinclair: Research Shows Interventions Can Make an 80-Year-Old Biologically 60
“We're keeping animals and increasingly we're showing with people that you can keep them younger for longer so that when you're 80, you can actually be 60.”
Balaji: US is headed toward anarchy rather than totalitarian dictatorship
“For some time, I'd been increasingly concerned that instead of marching into a future of freedom, we were heading into a time of tyranny. I still think something like this may take place in China's sphere of influence. Arguably, it already has. But as the even…”
Srinivasan: Most Core Math and Physics Breakthroughs Predate the NSF
“The vast majority Of, you know, results in mathematics and physics and so on that we rely on happened before NSF. Okay. Let's say like they predate the modern scientific establishment that Vannevar Bush set up”
Balaji: Tech labs will raise more funding via crypto than grants
“And any lab that is like doing reasonably interesting technology work. Absolutely. Will probably be able to get more funding online via cryptocurrency and NFTs than they will within the academic grants process.”
Balaji Srinivasan: Governments will fail to ban crypto as elites profit
“Like, they're not going to be able to ban it now. It's going to be harder to ban it. If enough members of the elite have sort of defected and are making money from this, only the sort of retro authoritarian chunk, which is Only about 30% of the population. It'…”
Srinivasan: Geopolitics by 2040 may center on China vs. international Indians
“I think by 2040, there's a chance, I'm not saying a hundred percent, but I think that if the last century ended up at least the second half was USA versus USSR, right? I think this century may end up as being China versus Indians, not India. I think that's whe…”
Srinivasan: US will collapse as an empire like the Soviet Union did
“I think the transition from just like the USSR became Russia, I think the USA after whatever collapse becomes America. That say it's like American culture. It's baseball, it's hot dogs, but it's not global empire, right?”
Andreessen: Open internet access makes Soviet-style totalitarianism impossible over time
“I mean, I guess I'm an optimist on this point. Like, I tend to think open access information basically makes a lot of these historical things, you know, fundamentally impossible. Not, you know, not necessarily, you know, not all centralized institutions get to…”
Ridley: China's declining economic freedom means it won't lead global prosperity
“China has been relatively free economically, but relative, but very unfree politically in the last few decades. I think that's now changing. I don't think it's very free in either respect. And so I don't see it leading the world in prosperity for an awful lot …”
Mullenweg: Open Source Eventually Dominates Every Market It Enters
“So I believe that open source comes to dominate any market that enters over time. And the key word is over time because sometimes it takes many decades.”
Roger Martin: The era of widely held public corporations will end
“I think we're going to look back, twenty-fifty, we'll look back on this period, 19, 40 ish, 35, 40 ish to say 20, 20, 25 or 30 as this insane period where we thought the widely held publicly traded corporation was the optimal form. And we're going to look back…”
Holland: Modern security machine learning is just 2005 antivirus analytics
“The existing machine learning implementations and a lot of solutions out there is the exact same thing that, you know, I've seen in antiviruses back in 2005. They just didn't call it machine learning. It was just training analytics to look for anomalies and.”
San Francisco pedestrians routinely inhale and track aerosolized fecal matter indoors
“In many cities on the coast of the US, like San Francisco most infamously, you are definitely, people are definitely inhaling fecal matter as they're walking outside. They're definitely getting it on their shoes and so on and tracking it in, even in, like, sma…”
The pandemic will permanently shift tech to a primary remote work model
“So what this is going to do is it's going to force everybody to look at remote work as not a auxiliary,
But as a primary, this is what I, one of the grand challenges I think for tech as opposed to biotech to work on, and it's going to have its hands full buil…”
Collins: Pioneering innovators rarely win; scaling the right innovations matters
“There's very little evidence that the pioneering innovators win. And what we found instead is that it's not being innovative that matters. It's the ability to scale the right innovations.”
AI Will Exponentially Exceed Human Intelligence in Hours in New Domains
“Now imagine that computer is unleashed not in the domain of chess, but in other domains. It'll totally recreate everything we know and then go beyond it in hours. So the scary thing with AI is this, that it will become exponentially smarter than we are in minu…”
Robinson: Parental Birthplace Eliminated Racial Differences in Test Score Gains
“If your father was born in another country, and your mother was born in the United States, that student improved the same regardless of race. Race dropped out as a factor.”