The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 14 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2017
Addicted Lab Rats Will Voluntarily Switch From Cocaine to Sugar
“And in animals at least, so rats and mice, we could do these experiments, you could demonstrate that they are, they will be more addicted to sugar than to cocaine or heroin, so these experiments Experiments, some of them were done in France, are sort of perver…”
Gary Taubes Nov 30, 2017 ▶ 29:24 #25 Gary Taubes: Is Sugar Slowly Killing Us
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Apr 2025
Singleton Made Teledyne First US TV Maker to Exit Before Japanese Competition
“When American TV manufacturers still dominated the US market, Singleton anticipated the coming Japanese competition and exited the business entirely. This shocked industry observers. Packard Bell had a good market share and solid profits, but Singleton saw the…”
Shane Parrish Apr 22, 2025 ▶ 35:58 Henry Singleton: The Greatest Capital Allocator in History [Outliers]
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2029
Tenev: Robinhood AI customer support executes transactional backend actions
“Then you have phase three, which is, okay, now I can actually do non-read only actions. I can change stuff. Maybe I'll refund you if, you know, you're not happy with your purchase. You can refund your gold subscription fee. So that involves actually some prett…”
Vlad Tenev Mar 3, 2026 ▶ 45:30 The Near Death Experience of RobinHood | Vlad Tenev, Co-Founder
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Apr 2025
Teledyne Fired Its Entire M&A Team Simultaneously in 1969
“There was a whole team of people at Teledyne who had been taking care of the acquisitions, helping find these companies, working through the acquisition process, integrating them, And they were just laid off all at the same time.”
Shane Parrish Apr 22, 2025 ▶ 24:48 Henry Singleton: The Greatest Capital Allocator in History [Outliers]
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2026
Duckworth: Fitbit study found no benefit to strict always-or-never goals
“So I will say this too, in the small amount of research I've done, cause we randomly assigned people to, for example, set a rule about how many steps they were going to take. And you know, these are Fitbit users that we Had recruited because they already had a…”
Angela Duckworth Apr 20, 2021 ▶ 56:22 #109 Angela Duckworth: Grit and Human Behavior
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2026
Parrish: Most valuable item in Cettie Rockefeller's wardrobe was a $150 coat
“When they inventory Seti's wardrobe, it told its own story of their lifestyle. The wife of the richest man on earth had owned almost nothing of value. The costliest thing in her closet was a sealskin coat appraised at a 150 dollars.”
Shane Parrish Jul 28, 2026 ▶ 2:33:32 John D. Rockefeller: The Principles Behind The Greatest Fortune in History
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Dec 2025
Home Depot Allocated Half Its 1996 Olympic Corporate Hospitality to Frontline Workers
“And Home Depot had 2000 packages, and half of them went to vendor partners, and the other half went to everyday associates. They were the only sponsor who gave such a high percentage of hospitality packages to their own employees.”
Shane Parrish Dec 16, 2025 ▶ 47:12 Bernie Marcus: The Story of Home Depot
Assertion Open · timeframe Apr 2028
Tan: The majority of Y Combinator CEOs are now technical
“The CEO of the majority of YC companies, they are technical.”
Garry Tan Apr 29, 2025 ▶ 47:58 Y Combinator CEO Garry Tan: Turning Ambitious Misfits into Founders
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Mar 2025
Revlon founder Charles Revson built a laboratory to reverse-engineer competitor formulas
“His Bronx laboratory was an arsenal of analysis. Spectroscopes breaking down colors, infrared and ultraviolet machines decoding fragrances, atomic absorption equipment, reverse engineering formulas.”
Shane Parrish Mar 11, 2025 ▶ 42:00 Estée Lauder: A Success Story
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2029
Hoehn: Bestselling book tables of contents are typically divided into 2-4 parts
“If you look in table of contents of bestselling books, they're typically divided into two to four parts, often three.”
Charlie Hoehn Dec 10, 2024 ▶ 38:49 Charlie Hoehn: Write Something People Want to Read
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2020
Cordle: Slack adopted a version of Amazon's decision memo
“And at Slack, we adopted a form of the Amazon memo.”
Chris Cordell Dec 22, 2020 ▶ 26:08 #99 Kris Cordle: Releasing the Ego
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jul 2018
Parrish: Keynes observed that failing conventionally is preferred over succeeding unconventionally
“You know, it was Keynes who said it's better to fail conventionally than succeed unconventionally, I believe.”
Shane Parrish Jul 25, 2018 ▶ 1:05:02 #37 Annie Duke: Getting Better by Being Wrong
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Sep 2020
Grant: Corning Fellows must author $100M patents and support others' patents
“And one of the first criteria is, are you the first author in a patent that's worth at least a hundred million US dollars?... So we're gonna say there are other criteria too, which include, are you a supporting author on other people's patents?”
Adam Grant Sep 21, 2017 ▶ 16:57 #22 Adam Grant: Givers, Takers, and the Resilient Mind
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Jun 2025
Nooyi: BCG consultants worked on two non-competitive industry assignments simultaneously
“In BCG, you worked on two different assignments at the same time, so you had to understand two industries, the value drivers, Two non-competitive industries.”
Indra Nooyi Jun 24, 2025 ▶ 11:27 Former PepsiCo CEO Indra Nooyi: Lessons from the Top
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