The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Scott Page: China's economic growth will slow without massive innovation
“The same is true of China, right? So if you do a linear projection of China, You know, five years ago, you'd have said, oh my gosh, you know, by 2040, China's economy is going to be just enormous, but the reality is growth's going to fall off, because what the…”
Page: Linear models beat individuals, but groups often beat linear models
“What you find is the regression does a lot better than any one person because of the fact that The linear regression can include way, a lot more data. It doesn't suffer from biases, all sorts of stuff. But oftentimes when you have groups of people compete agai…”
Scott Page: Firm and species lifespans both follow power-law distributions
“The lifespan of firms, some of them can be really short, but if you happen to get really big, you're going to last a long time. That should be a power law, and it is. It's also true that the lifespan of species phylogenera in ecology, you can think of that as …”