The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Computers will surpass humans at quality thinking long before intuition
“It'll be a long time before those intuitions and those imaginations are created by computers. Ok, but it won't be a long time before computers produce better quality thinking.”
Dalio: Coders riding algorithms will displace workers and cause economic bifurcation
“There are going to be people who are riding the algorithms that will replace the people who are doing jobs. And so there's going to be a bifurcation, and I think that learning how to code is like learning how to read and write for the next generation”
Bridgewater anticipated the 2008 financial crisis by studying the 1930s
“The only reason we were able to anticipate it and benefit from it is because it, we felt that it was necessary to understand what had happened in the thirties and what happened before, because the same things happen over and over again.”
Dalio: Major Debt Crises Occur Roughly Once Every 75 Years
“Some things happen once every 75 years, particularly debt crises and those kinds of things.”
External systems will soon know individuals better than their spouses
“Radical transparency is coming at you fast anyway. Because we're now living in a world where the data that you leave about yourself all over the place is meaning that people will, you know, strangers, systems, can now examine you and know you better than peopl…”
Dalio: Adapting to Bridgewater's culture typically takes about 18 months
“So it's a transition. It's probably like a transition of trying to eat healthy and exercise and do those types of things. Typically takes about 18 months.”
Dalio: College hires and experienced hires succeed equally at Bridgewater
“The people who come directly from school are tend to be a little bit more arrogant, know a little bit less, and go through a transformation that's pretty much easier. They're more adaptable. So that's why they're prone to like it, but it, but also depending on…”
Dalio administered personality tests to Bill Gates and Elon Musk
“I've given personality tests to well, I mentioned that in, in the book, Bill Gates, Elon Musk many, many incredible, successful people, and they all have some elements in common, and then they also have differences, and so there's a path to leadership.”
Dalio: The stock market bottomed in August 1982 when Mexico defaulted
“If you look at the exact bottom in the stock market, August, When Mexico defaulted, that was the exact bottom in the stock market”
Dalio: IBM Watson creator Dave Ferrucci works on Bridgewater data processing
“We have on the data collection processing type of thing, we have a fellow by the name of Dave Ferrucci, who was the person who started and created Watson at IBM.”
Dalio punched his boss on New Year's Eve while drunk
“He and I were drunk on New Year's Eve, and yeah, you know, and we had we had this playful, fun challenging relationships, and I decked him, and he then crashed the car when he went home, and his wife chewed him out, and I figured that I was going to lose my jo…”