Ray Dalio explains how studying historical patterns that have not occurred within one's own lifetime enabled Bridgewater to anticipate the 2008 financial crisis.
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Computers will surpass humans at quality thinking long before intuition
“It'll be a long time before those intuitions and those imaginations are created by computers. Ok, but it won't be a long time before computers produce better quality thinking.”
Insight
Dalio: Neither autocratic nor democratic decision-making works well in organizations
“The problem that most people have at that point is that either there is an autocratic decision maker or a democratic decision maker. Neither of those work well. The autocratic decision maker is just the guy who's the boss who says, okay, well, now I'm going to…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dalio: Coders riding algorithms will displace workers and cause economic bifurcation
“There are going to be people who are riding the algorithms that will replace the people who are doing jobs. And so there's going to be a bifurcation, and I think that learning how to code is like learning how to read and write for the next generation”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Dalio: Major Debt Crises Occur Roughly Once Every 75 Years
“Some things happen once every 75 years, particularly debt crises and those kinds of things.”
Insight
Dalio: Best decisions come from consulting three believable experts who disagree
“Go to three highly believable people who are willing to disagree with each other. And hear that disagreement, and interact, and bring out that disagreement, and see where there's agreement, so that you get to the other side, so when you either have agreement, …”
Insight
Dalio: In discussions, know if you are student, teacher, or peer
“At the same time, I think it's important for the parties to try to think am I a teacher, student, or peer? Because if I'm speaking with somebody who really knows a lot more about them, something, I want to be asking more questions than I want to be sharing opi…”