The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 2 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Galef: Top charities can save 100 times more lives per dollar donated
“They're literally, like, orders of magnitude difference in the effectiveness of different charities trying to do the same thing. So just by kind of stepping back from your automatic emotional reactions and asking yourself, okay, what does the evidence show? Yo…”
Galef: Tetlock's forecasters beat geopolitical and economic experts by a huge margin
“Basically, Phil Tetlock's team of forecasters outperformed by a huge margin, all the other teams of forecasters and like experts in, in politics and economics who are trying to make predictions about world events. And that's because Phil Tetlock's team was usi…”