The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Robinson: AlphaZero surpassed all human chess knowledge within four hours
“And in four hours, that program leapfrogged all existing human knowledge of the game, and has a chess rating of, hard to estimate, like, 36, 3700, compared with 3300.”
Adam Robinson: George Soros Senses Market Trouble Through Back Pain
“George Soros famously said that when his back is acting up, That he knows something is wrong in markets.”
Robinson: AlphaZero defeated top chess engine without losing a single game
“This pro, this computer program played a match against the reigning software, right, 3300. It beat it 72 to 28 in a 100 game match with no losses.”
Robinson: Top mathematicians cannot understand computer-generated proofs
“Right now, there are mathematical proofs done by computers that human beings can't understand. The best mathematicians in the world don't understand those proofs, and all they can say is, we can't find a mistake in it. It's probably right, but we're not real s…”
Robinson: Fischer played the same openings for 16 years before switching in the World Championship
“Fisher set up The Russians for, let me just figure this out, 10 to 20, for 1617 years, played exactly the same moves, so everyone knew exactly what he was going to do, and in the world championship, only, he did something different.”
Robinson: Bobby Fischer progressed from good player to world elite between ages 12 and 15
“Fisher learned the game of chess at the age of six. And by the time he was 11, sorry, by the time he was 12, he was a good twelve-year-old chess player. Not a great twelve-year-old chess player. He was a good twelve-year-old player. That's six years later, rig…”
Robinson: Slovic Study Proves Extra Information Increases Overconfidence Without Improving Accuracy
“Their accuracy was still only 17% with 40 pieces of information, but their confidence almost doubled to 31%. It went from 19% to 31%. So they are now almost twice as confident as they ought to be, which is to say they're overconfident. So all the extra informa…”