The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 295 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 32 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Dixon: By 2025 remote conversations will probably occur in VR
“I think, you know, in 10 years, we'd be probably having this conversation in virtual reality, and we'd be, you know, looking at each other across the room, and it would feel like we're in the same room.”
Baszucki: VR interfaces will likely evolve from goggles to non-intrusive tech
“I think that's probably more where it's gonna go, probably. Than just goggles and stuff like that.”
Pincus: Voice interfaces will make typing and texting look obsolete
“But I do think that voice will be the biggest thing that'll feel obvious, that we wasted so much time typing and texting and reading, and I think we're going to turn on our ears and our voices a lot more.”
Liemandt: Physical schools will still exist in 20 years
“In 20 years, you know, predict the future, what's going to be the same in 20 years? Parents are going to drop their kids off at a building. In the building are gonna be other kids and adults, right? There's, we're not, you're not getting rid of school. School …”
Liemandt: Alpha's Time Back Engine Will Release Globally in 2026
“That's Time Back, our Time Back engine, that's 10, and today it's at Alpha, you know, in 20, 26, everybody in the world's gonna be able to access it. And so everybody who wants to build a school based on Time Back is gonna be able to next year.”
Liemandt: TimeBack will become the Shopify for micro-schools
“Think of Shopify for micro school, or for schools, right? That's what time back is going to be, and it's going to explode it.”
Teskey predicts institutional allocations to alternative assets will double within ten years
“The institutional allocations to alternatives are going to double From where they are today over the next 10 years.”
Tenev: AI market will see multiple domain-specialized models, not one winner
“I think there's going to be multiple models and it's really going to depend on the data that is used to feed them.
So for example, one thing that's great about Aristotle, which is harmonics model is you've got mathematicians that are using it to ask very comp…”
Tenev: Push-button digital fundraising will happen for all companies
“You could imagine a digital fundraising process where you're plugged into, you know, an electronic market and you can push a button and you get the capital to run your business. I think that'll happen, not just for crypto companies, but for all types of compan…”
Tangen: Big investors fleeing real estate signals better times ahead
“And I see that a lot of big investors are reducing their exposures to real estate. So that's probably a good sign, right? That there are better times ahead.”
Housel: Younger Generations Are Probably Wrong That They Won't Surpass Parents
“I think they're probably wrong about that in general. Of course, there's going to be lots of examples where that was the case, but I think they tend to, I think, I would bet that they would be wrong about that.”
Parrish: News Outlets Will Personalize Article Text to Readers' Preferences
“So increasingly, I mean, we're moving to a world. I don't think people quite realize that yet where you and I open the same article in the wall street journal or New York times, it's going to be two different versions of that article that's based on our browsi…”
Scilipoti: AI will completely replace entry-level junior financial analysts
“The bottom level of being an analyst, the junior analyst is, is going to be replaced by an AI. The one that said, find me all the references of, you know, where the company capitalized costs. That the AI can do.”
Scilipoti: AI Will Replace Junior Financial Analysts Completely
“The bottom level of being an analyst, the junior analyst is, is going to be replaced by an AI.”
Cool: There will not be another company like Berkshire Hathaway
“Berkshire is a phenomenal place. I mean, it's unique. It's one of a kind. I don't think there'll be another one by any means.”
Diller predicts fully agentic AI doing work for users within a year
“It is more than likely that within a year, but I don't say that, I mean, I think it really is probably truly within a year or so, you really will be able to have a conversation, agentic, this new word, where
An agent does work for you.
We'll know so much about…”
Evans: Tech will build around AI for 10 to 15 years
“My sort of base case is to say, this is kind of another platform shift, and all the new stuff will be built around this for the next 10 or 15 years, and then there'll be something else.”
Gil: The Tech Sector Will See Fewer New Foundation Model Companies
“We'll see fewer, what are known as foundation model companies, the people building the open AIs or Anthropics or some of the Google core technologies.”
Garry Tan: AI reasoning models will drive biotech breakthroughs within a year
“Like, if only by applying, you know, dollars to energy that then goes into these models, will there be, ah, real breakthroughs in, you know, biological sciences, like being able to do new processes or come to a deeper understanding of you know, whether it's, a…”
Garry Tan: Every major AI lab will release computer-use agent capabilities
“What Anthropic is doing with computer use is, you know, I think that you know, what I've heard is basically every major lab is probably going to need to release something like that, whether it's an API the way Anthropic has, or literally built into this you kn…”
Tan: China will likely rely on a single, centrally controlled ASI
“That society probably, you know, unless there's other changes there, like that's, you can sort of count on a single, ah, artificial super intelligence, like sort of setting the, how everything works over there.”
Garry Tan: AI passing the Turing test will jump to 30% this year
“I think in a lot of domains, and this is sort of the year where, like, Maybe there's, like, five or 10% of things that, like, it's, you know, sort of hitting the Turing test and, you know, really satisfying that, but, you know, I think maybe this is a year whe…”
Garry Tan: AI infrastructure demand will scale to the Manhattan Project's level
“I mean, NVIDIA just, you know, has an out and out. Like, for now, they're just so far ahead of everyone else. I mean, it can't last forever, but I think that, you know, the demand for building the infrastructure for intelligence in society is going to be absol…”
Taylor: Self-driving software will likely shift to monolithic models replacing heuristics
“A lot of smart people think that eventually it'll probably be a more monolithic model that encodes many of the same rules. You have to throw out a lot of code in that transition, but it doesn't mean it's not the right thing to do.”
Flatt: AI and Robotics Will Enable Manufacturing Reshoring to the US
“If you can shrink the labor component many of those plants can come back to where the demand is specifically I'd say the United States.”
Flatt: China will thrive independently as a consumer service economy
“I think China, it's a, it's an economy in itself today. It's 1.5 billion people. They're getting richer every day. They're turning into a consumer service society. There's not that much of manufacturing that's relevant to them. I think they will do extremely w…”
Wolfe: Africa's Sahel Region Could Become the Next Afghanistan
“The Sahel and Maghreb in Africa, which is not an area that a lot of people talk about or think about, that I believe with low probability, super high magnitude import
Is going to become the next Afghanistan, that that region in the Sahel, all these coups and c…”
Wolfe: Machines will replace white-collar knowledge workers while blue-collar craft is protected
“But interestingly, I actually think that the people whose jobs are, like, most protected in this new domain are blue-collar workers. A robot today can't really fully serve a meal, and they cannot effectively, even though every humanoid robot tries to do foldin…”
Wolfe: Rising capital costs will bring a return to active managers
“I do think that we will see a return to
Active managers that are able to discriminate true fundamentals, in part because I think that the cost of capital is just gonna rise and all the funny money of the past 10 years is, is gonna wash out.”
Josh Wolfe: AI will never replicate shared human experience and memories
“And the great human feeling is commiserating about the thing that we experience together, or the memory and laughing hysterically, which I still do with my childhood friends, of this shared moment, and AI will never get that.”
Josh Wolfe: Adding 10 to 20 Years to Lifespan Is Possible, Not Doubling
“I think that's possible, 10 or 15 or 20 not doubling.”
Wolfe: Reshoring and tariffs will cause inflation and raise capital costs
“Reshoring. All of these things, you know, tariffs, they're gonna be inflationary, there would be a rising cost of capital.”
Jacobs: QXO will reach $50B by taking 6% market share
“There are this eight hundred billion dollars of distributors in Western Europe and in North America, which is where I want to plant my flag. I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion dolla…”
Holiday: AI Will Eliminate Average Workers but Boost Elite Leverage and Pay
“These technologies aren't eliminating They're going to be eliminating large chunks of the people who are able to do that thing. But the people who could do that thing at an elite or an excellent level will probably it's leverage will be better at it and be mor…”
Bragg: Oxford will have more blueberry acreage than New Brunswick has in potatoes
“We're going to have more acres and blueberries than New Brunswick has in potatoes.”
Jacobs: QXO can reach $50B in revenue through acquisitions and organic growth
“There are, there's eight hundred billion dollars of distributors in Western Europe and in North America, which is where I want to plant my flag. I want to build a company that's called fifty billion dollars. I can do that. If there's an eight hundred billion d…”
Davis: Any writing advantage humans have over AI won't last long
“I don't think it will be more effective. I mean, I think that, or if it is, it's only because I still have a little lead on AI, but Eh, it ain't gonna last for long.”
Davis: VR and AR will replace smartphones and restore broadsheet-style reading
“It's actually one of the reasons I'm fairly optimistic that whatever replaces this shitty little, you know, five inch rectangle that we all carry around in our pocket, that is a very, very poor way to get information, this tiny little screen. And, you know, wh…”
Davis: The US will only repay its debt by devaluing currency through inflation
“Certainly inflation will have to, the only way we can repay the debts that we've incurred is going to be by, you know, devaluing the currency so we can pay back.”
Bryan Johnson: Cultural celebration of tanned skin will not survive long-term
“This culture of a tan skin is not going to survive much longer because it will just naturally push in the direction where We generally over a long enough time horizon move towards more positive habits for society. Sometimes it takes a very long time, but I thi…”
Kelly: AI is the most powerful technology ever made and will be weaponized
“This is the most powerful technology we've ever made. It will be abused. I'm sorry to say it will probably be used, will be weaponized, and those are always something to worry about.”
Kelly: A rise of nationalism in China is almost inevitable
“Nationalism is something bigger than yourself to believe in, and so that's why there's going to be a rise in China of nationalism. That's sort of almost inevitable, because that's bigger than yourself, and you can believe in that.”
Parrish: Remote work and insular socioeconomic environments risk driving political extremism
“The socioeconomic world looks like you, the political world looks like you, and my hunch, and I hope I'm wrong, is that this starts to lead to political extremes.”
Lütke: Tech History Books Will Be Seen as Mainline Human History
“I think in a 102 hundred years from now, when we talk about human history like, these books that, like, Hackers by Stephen Levy, and The Dream Machine, and like, Code by Petzold, and, you know, all these kind of, these books are actually going to be referenced…”
Balaji: Society faces an unbundling of institutions before rebundling
“Prior to any rebundling, I think we're on track for quite the unbundling.”
Srinivasan: Practical speech will expand despite institutional attempts to suppress it
“It's like a graph that went all the way up into the right in terms of practical speech. And then they're trying to like jacket back down, but it's going to come back up because the attempt to deprive somebody of the practical, right? You just gave them that vo…”