The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 73 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Robinson: Doctors cannot follow IBM Watson's diagnostic reasoning
“So even now, the computer Watson, IBM's Watson, can come up with a medical diagnosis, the challenge of which is to explain the diagnosis to the doctor, because the doctor can't follow the reasoning of the neural net, and all the thing.”
Robinson: US Tech Giants Own User Data Unlike European Frameworks
“In the United States, You don't own your data. Google does, or Facebook. It's their corporate data. But in Europe, the individual owns his or her data.”
Robinson: User Data's True Value Comes from Aggregate Cross-Referencing
“The value of your data is when they cross-reference it with other people, right? The value emerges not just because Shane is using Google, but lots of other people are, and they're able to do, use statistics and machine learning to find patterns so that they u…”
Robinson: Fischer played the same openings for 16 years before switching in the World Championship
“Fisher set up The Russians for, let me just figure this out, 10 to 20, for 1617 years, played exactly the same moves, so everyone knew exactly what he was going to do, and in the world championship, only, he did something different.”
Robinson Predicts Global Markets Using Copper-to-Gold and Bond Ratios
“Which is why, by the way, in my investment analysis, when I look at global markets, I reduce all global markets down to a handful of variables, like copper versus gold, or investment grade bonds versus, versus corporate bonds, right? LQD, IEF, that ratio I tol…”
Robinson: All mnemonics reduce to pictures, patterns, stories, or rhymes
“Create a picture, a pattern, a story, or a rhyme out of it. All mnemonics come back to picture, pattern, story, or rhyme, but they don't tell us that.”
Robinson: The key to learning is breaking skills down and rehearsing them
“The key to learning any skill, really, if there's anything I said today, like, that was super important, the key to learning any skill, rehearse it. Break it down into sub-skills, and the rehearse Each of those skills.”
Robinson: Attempt Chapter Questions Before Reading to Prime Problem-Solving
“Try the sample questions at the end of the chapter before you read the chapter. Now, because what that does is it primes you. Now, now all of a sudden, whoa, how would I, there's no way I can answer those questions. Let's, now you're primed as you read the cha…”
Robinson: Translate Notes into Your Own Words Rather Than Rereading Them
“When you take notes in school, they're probably verbatim just because you've got to keep up with the teacher, right? But then translate those notes into your own words, because that's what you're going to have to do on the test. Don't reread your notes. Transl…”
Robinson: Medieval court jesters were institutionalized truth-tellers, not entertainers
“In in the Middle Ages, there was an institution designed by kings to provide feedback, and it was called the court jester, and the function of the court jester was not to amuse the king. The function of the court jester was far more serious than that. The cour…”
Robinson: Wikipedia extracts immense uncompensated economic value by offering intrinsic worth
“Wikipedia extracts economic value from people without compensating them. It offers them the opportunity to extract intrinsic value, intrinsic worth from the activity.”
Robinson: Tapping into unconscious truth will startle and surprise you
“Here's, here's a clue that you've tapped into truth with a capital T, and that your unconscious is speaking, is that the answer will surprise you. You'll be startled by it.”
Robinson: A market trend is fundamentally the spread of an idea
“A trend is the spread of an idea. That's all a trend is. That's the spread of an idea.”
Robinson: Parabolic moves occur more often during market declines than rises
“Parabolic moves, you see, you don't see them often in markets. You see them more often on the decline than on the rise.”
Robinson: CAD/USD is the best forex proxy for oil price convictions
“The Canadian dollar versus the US dollar is is the best foreign exchange expression of the price of oil, of because we're such an oil rich nation or rich nation. Right. And that's the way currency traders express their view, right? So if currency traders belie…”
Robinson: Test Prep Is Unforgiving Because Teacher Impact Is Exactly Measurable
“Test prep is a ruthlessly unforgiving domain, because you can measure how good a job the tutor has done down to the decimal. You know exactly whether he's done a good job or not.”
Robinson: Stuyvesant High School Average SAT Is Higher Than Harvard's
“To put this in perspective, Stuyvesant's average SAT is higher than Harvard's.”
Robinson: Doubling down on failing methods fails; progress requires detached experimentation
“We think that what we're doing, we're not trying, as I'm using air quotes now, trying hard enough, or we'll invest some more money, and that's not changing what you're doing, that's just doing more of the same, and the goal is to be detached and experimental, …”
Robinson: When stuck, start experimenting in the exact opposite direction
“All you need to do is just change what you're doing. Not more of it. Not more of the same. Do something different. And a good first step is, is in the opposite direction. Right? If you don't know how to change what you're doing, start off in the opposite direc…”
Robinson: Spent two weeks watching Bobby Fischer prepare for Spassky match
“Yeah, I got a chance to spend time with him at the, there used to be a resort called Grossingers in the Catskills. If you saw the movie Dirty Dancing with Patrick Swayze back in the day, it was where they, Muhammad Ali had trained, I guess he was, I don't know…”
Robinson: Bobby Fischer progressed from good player to world elite between ages 12 and 15
“Fisher learned the game of chess at the age of six. And by the time he was 11, sorry, by the time he was 12, he was a good twelve-year-old chess player. Not a great twelve-year-old chess player. He was a good twelve-year-old player. That's six years later, rig…”
Robinson: Slovic Study Proves Extra Information Increases Overconfidence Without Improving Accuracy
“Their accuracy was still only 17% with 40 pieces of information, but their confidence almost doubled to 31%. It went from 19% to 31%. So they are now almost twice as confident as they ought to be, which is to say they're overconfident. So all the extra informa…”
Robinson: Most self-help books fail to show practical execution
“Most how-to books and self-help, they're not really how-to books, they're what-to books. They tell you what to do, but they don't actually show you how to do it”