The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Apr 2058
Dr. Z: Humans will travel to Mars within his lifetime
“I think we will go to Mars with humans in my lifetime, for sure.”
Dr. Thomas Zurbuchen Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 31:57 #108 Thomas Zurbuchen: Adventures in Astrophysics
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Zurbuchen: Space and asteroid mining will happen within our lifetime
“No, I think this is our lifetime kind of issue, the mining calling.”
Dr. Thomas Zurbuchen Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 34:48 #108 Thomas Zurbuchen: Adventures in Astrophysics
Opinion
Treating Mars as a backup planet will inevitably ruin Mars too
“It probably makes a lot more sense to try to take care of this planet and not screw it up than to treat Earth as being disposable and say, oh, it's okay, we're gonna go, we'll have Mars. Because if you keep thinking that way, you're gonna screw Mars up too.”
Nathan Myhrvold Mar 21, 2023 ▶ 17:35 Nathan Myhrvold
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Zurbuchen: Schedule is the most vital variable in planetary space missions
“So often for planetary mission. Schedule is the most important variable because the planets need to be in the right place in the sky. So I can't take longer. I can only either go this year or two years from now to Mars, for example.”
Dr. Thomas Zurbuchen Apr 6, 2021 ▶ 56:18 #108 Thomas Zurbuchen: Adventures in Astrophysics
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