why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Sutherland: Engineers dislike marketing because consumers prioritize human design over technical metrics
“And so their failure to understand the wider context within which they were operating, which is the job of marketing, Is exactly the reason nerds hate marketing, because they think in a perfect world, nerd metrics win out. But the consumer is much more bothere…”
Insight
Evans: Apple risks being 'Microsofted' by cloud-based AI models
“There's this sort of question for Apple around, does this actually change the experience of what a smartphone is, what the ecosystem is? Does it end up kind of getting Microsofted, in the sense that you're going to still, for the time being, you're still going…”
Opinion
Evans: AI's impact equals the iPhone, not the Industrial Revolution
“It's funny, my, I suppose my take on AI, controversial take on AI, rather like my controversial take on crypto is being a centrist, in that it seems to me very clear this is like the biggest thing since the iPhone, but I also think it's only the biggest thing …”
Opinion
Holland: Bypassing Apple's core mitigations allows attackers to compromise any device globally
“All you need to do is get around these set of mitigations, and you now can own any Apple device in the world.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gross: Google will always beat Apple in services, but lose in hardware
“And I think this will always be the case. They will try to always fix this, but it will always be the case that Google will be amazing at services because ads requires a service business model, and Apple will be amazing at kind of user experience and hardware.…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Dixon: Virtual reality will be the next computing wave after mobile
“I think it will be, like, when we look back on the history of computing, it will be, the key milestones will be, I mean, I'm, this is, I'm at the extreme end of excitement here, but there'll be, you know, the PC, the Macintosh, or something like this, then the…”
Insight
Pincus: Apps earning an iPhone home screen spot hold $1B stick value
“But I've found that if a product speaks to you, or at least, this is my experience, if this product speaks to me, and it makes it on the front of my iPhone, I think it has a billion dollar stick value.”
Assertion Supported
Eastman: Video recording observer effect disappears within ten minutes
“The truth is, people, like, will talk about the observer effect with video and all that, it goes away in, like, 10 minutes. Like, if you have, like, a small iPhone, you forget about it, and you're actually seeing patterns of behavior”
Insight
Gross: Breakthrough products come from intuition, not metric optimization
“Doing one thing Apple was, is legendary at, which is saying, let's, let's take a break from the current metrics. And let's just try to envision some type of blue sky idea. Let's not even collect data about how it's going to be. Let's use our intuition and tast…”
What-if
Maples: Cheap drones would not exist without iPhone and Android scale
“So you wouldn't have drones as cheap as they are if it wasn't for the iPhone and for Android. Because now you have cameras and sensors and chips that never would have been built just for drones, but now are mass producing to be harnessed by drones and by other…”
Assertion Partly supported
Dicks: Steve Jobs opened the 2007 iPhone keynote citing a 2.5-year wait
“When Jobs introduces the iPhone in 2007, his first sentence on stage is, I've been waiting two and a half years to share this with you today.”