why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Duke: IBM lost to Apple due to a culture of outcome bias
“And it's, I've always felt that it's because IBM is operating under a culture of resulting, and Apple isn't. Apple can't possibly be Operating under they're doing something unconventional by definition. Their whole business model is to make unconventional choi…”
Insight
Voss: People Fear Failing in New Ways More Than Failing
“People aren't afraid to fail. They're afraid to fail in a new way. So you never get fired for hiring IBM is like, if we hire IBM and we fail, it's already been demonstrated to be a socially acceptable outcome.”
Insight
The greatest business failures come from excelling at obsolete games
“The greatest business failures often come from not playing the game poorly, but from continuing to excel at games that no longer matter.”
Assertion Supported
Gil: Major open-source technologies historically require giant corporate backers
“Almost every single major open source company has had a giant, ah, institutional backer. IBM was the biggest funder of Linux in the nineties as a counterbalance to Microsoft. And the biggest funders of all the open source browsers are Apple and Google with Web…”
Assertion Contradicted
Fry: IBM Deep Blue introduced deliberate delays to simulate human thinking
“The IBM team deliberately coded their machine so that the way that it worked for you would sort of search for solutions. And depending on how long that search would take, it would be how quickly the answer came back, but they deliberately coded it so that some…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Immelt: Top New York Fortune 500 CEOs held quarterly dinners on governance
“So there were five CEOs in the New York City area. It was me and Ken Chenault from American Express, Sam Palmisano, and then Jenny Romney from IBM, Steve Reimann, and then Indra Newey from Pepsi, and Bill Weldon, and then Alex Gorski from J&J. And we had dinne…”
Assertion Supported
Domingos: AI Self-Play Dates Back to Arthur Samuel's 1950s Checkers System
“This is actually a very, very old idea in machine learning. It's one of the oldest ideas. It goes all the way back to the fifties. And this researcher at IBM called Arthur Samuel, who actually wrote the first machine learning system to learn to play a game. An…”
Assertion Partly supported
Domingos: IBM's Deep Blue Used Classical Search With No Machine Learning
“So Deep Blue was very much classic AI. There was no machine learning involved. Deep Blue essentially, it was just doing a very a clever and very extensive search for the best moves to make.”