Konnikova: Intuition should only be trusted when supported by domain expertise
Maria Konnikova · TKP Insights: Making (Even) Better Decisions · Oct 25, 2022 · at 31:47
Maria Konnikova, psychologist and professional poker player, outlines the conditions under which intuitive judgment is reliable.
0:00 / 0:30exact quote · 30.9s
720p mp4 · rendered on demand · StarZero watermark
“What correct intuition is, is all of this experience that we've accumulated in something that we don't necessarily have conscious access to the process of acquiring, and so your intuition should only be trusted if you're an expert in this area, if there's a reason why you should be confident here, and learning to kind of disentangle that And learning to spot false confidence for what it is, I think is a crucial skill just in absolutely anything.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading: filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard (the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Maria Konnikova
Konnikova: Decision quality must be judged by thought process, not outcomes
“One of the things that he really taught me is that you have to distinguish the action and the outcome from the thought process. As long as your thought process is solid, as long as you're thinking through things correctly, then you did well, even if you ended …”
Konnikova: Betting on opinions improves decision-making through accountability
“Kant says that betting actually forms an integral part to improving your decision process and improving your level of certainty in something, because people can say all sorts of stuff and just make all sorts of pronouncements if they're not held accountable fo…”
Poker improves investors by preventing them from deflecting blame to external noise
“That people say that poker can really help you in the stock market, and I think that that's true, and the reason it can help you become a better investor and make better decisions is the stock market is so damn noisy that when you make bad decisions, there's a…”
Decision quality must be evaluated by thought process, not outcomes
“One of the things that he really taught me is that you have to distinguish the action and the outcome from the thought process. As long as your thought process is solid, as long as you're thinking through things correctly, then you did well, even if you ended …”
Konnikova argues fiction and poetry teach distinct lessons absent from nonfiction
“I'm a huge, huge believer that everyone should be reading fiction and poetry. There are so many people who I really admire who just say, oh, I only read nonfiction because all the other stuff doesn't teach me anything, and I just, I've had this conversation so…”
Konnikova: Humans differentiate correct from incorrect intuitions roughly 50% of time
“We have intuitions all the time, and we are actually horrible, horrible, horrible at being able to tell the correct intuitions from the wrong intuitions. We're about fifty-fifty, and that's a really bad track record. And sometimes our intuitions are spot on, a…”