The Calls
Every prediction date that has already passed, checked against the public record: green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly held up. Diamonds at the right edge were assessed before their prediction date arrived.
Everyone Shane Parrish (7)Josh Wolfe (3)Brad Jacobs (3)Pedro Domingos (2)Joe Liemandt (2)Dr. David Sinclair (2)Balaji Srinivasan (2)Vlad Tenev (1)Scott Page (1)Reed Hastings (1)Kunal Shah (1)John Bragg (1)
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The record (3) every resolved claim →
Wolfe: AI will generate full feature films without actors or crew
“One of our companies, Runway ML, you can, and there's others that you can conjure. Today it's 10 seconds, but tomorrow it'll be two minutes, and full feature films with no key grips, no lighting, no costume design, no set design, no actors, and voices entirely…”
Wolfe: Major LLM providers will offer enterprise document search within six months
“Why don't we wait six months? Because this is going to be available from all of the major LLM providers today that want to get the enterprise accounts.”
Wolfe: Users will soon control ambient technology using neural micro-gesture wristbands
“What that implies is that you will wear something akin to a bracelet or a wristwatch, and you will be able to gesture like Disney's Sorcerer's Apprentice to flick your fingers to turn on the lights, to swipe like you would swipe in three dimensional, three Rai…”