stock market

14 statements across 11 episodes · 7 bullish · 3 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2015 by Philip Tetlock · across every show →

Everything said about stock market, oldest first

Dec 8, 2015
Insight
Tetlock: Predicting 10-year stock market direction is easier than tomorrow's
“It's very hard to say whether the stock market's going to up or, going to go up or down tomorrow. So that's a short range question. In some ways, it's easier to predict where the stock market's going to be up or down 10 years from now relative to now that it i…”
Philip Tetlock Dec 8, 2015 ▶ 36:39 #6 Philip Tetlock: How to See the Future
Aug 30, 2016 neutral
Assertion Supported
Domingos: The Stock Market Is Largely Algorithms Modeling Each Other
“The stock market is largely a bunch of algorithms trading against each other. And in fact, what these algorithms are doing Whether or not they know it is modeling each other.”
Pedro Domingos Aug 30, 2016 ▶ 28:47 #13 Pedro Domingos: The Rise of The Machines
Oct 11, 2017 neutral
Assertion Supported
Dalio: The stock market bottomed in August 1982 when Mexico defaulted
“If you look at the exact bottom in the stock market, August, When Mexico defaulted, that was the exact bottom in the stock market”
Ray Dalio Oct 11, 2017 ▶ 12:52 #23 Ray Dalio: Life Lessons from a Self-Made Billionaire
Nov 12, 2019 bullish
Assertion Partly supported
Schwarzman: Blackstone's investing makes about double the stock market
“We've just become more popular because the type of investing we do makes about double the stock market.”
Stephen Schwarzman Nov 12, 2019 ▶ 58:07 #69 Stephen Schwarzman: What It Takes
Jun 9, 2020
Insight
McLean: The business world is emotional and biased toward belief
“There's this idea that the business world is hard and cold and rational, and it's not, it's incredibly emotional. And everybody is biased toward belief because most people stand to make money. If a stock goes up”
Bethany McLean Jun 9, 2020 ▶ 9:24 #85 Bethany McLean: Crafting a Narrative
Aug 4, 2020 positive
Insight
Poker improves investors by preventing them from deflecting blame to external noise
“That people say that poker can really help you in the stock market, and I think that that's true, and the reason it can help you become a better investor and make better decisions is the stock market is so damn noisy that when you make bad decisions, there's a…”
Maria Konnikova Aug 4, 2020 ▶ 12:43 #89 Maria Konnikova: Less Certainty, More Inquiry
Feb 7, 2023 negative
Assertion Contradicted
Dignan: Stock market holding periods have dropped to days or hours
“The actual time to hold has gone down to the point where now it's like in, it can be measured in days or hours on average.”
Aaron Dignan Feb 7, 2023 ▶ 11:49 Aaron Dignan: Change The Way You Work
May 28, 2024 bullish
Insight
Housel: A tiny fraction of outlier stocks drives majority of market returns
“It's always going to be the case that a very small number of stocks account for the majority of returns. So recently it's been Fang plus Nvidia. If you didn't own those stocks, Fang plus Nvidia over the last decade, your odds of outperforming are very, very lo…”
Morgan Housel May 28, 2024 ▶ 16:42 Morgan Housel: Get Rich, Stay Rich
Apr 22, 2025 positive
Insight
Public Stocks Offer Better Value Than Full Corporate Acquisitions
“There are tremendous values in the stock market, but in buying stocks, not in entire companies. Buying companies tends to raise the purchase price too high.”
Shane Parrish Apr 22, 2025 ▶ 27:14 Henry Singleton: The Greatest Capital Allocator in History [Outliers]
Jun 3, 2025 negative
Insight
Firestone: Executive stock speculation inevitably ruins companies by splitting leader incentives
“The moment that officers or directors of a company begin to speculate in its stock, the ruin of the company is not far away, for it is impossible to serve both the company and the stock market.”
Shane Parrish Jun 3, 2025 ▶ 41:10 Harvey Firestone: Men and Rubber [Outliers]
Jan 20, 2026 positive
Insight
Housel: Stock Investors Need at Least a 10-Year Horizon for High Probability Success
“Historically, when we talk about the stock market, a good definition of long-term of like really putting the odds of success in your favor is probably 10 years. Of putting, like, earning a real rate of return after inflation, even within the cyclicality of the…”
Morgan Housel Jan 20, 2026 ▶ 1:46:56 Morgan Housel: Wealth is What You Have Minus What You Want
Jan 20, 2026 negative
Insight
Housel: People Falsely Assume Market Crashes Happen in an Economic Vacuum
“And most people, if you ask them the question, how would you feel psychologically right now if the stock market fell? In that exercise, what they do is they imagine a world where everything is exactly the same as it is today, except stocks are half the price.”
Morgan Housel Jan 20, 2026 ▶ 19:34 Morgan Housel: Wealth is What You Have Minus What You Want
Jan 20, 2026 positive
Insight
Housel: Market Volatility Is the Necessary Cost of Admission in Capitalism
“And by and large, what you have to do in capitalism is put up with a never ending chain of uncertainty and volatility and things you didn't see coming. And so it's never fun to deal with that. A recession, a job loss or stock market goes down. It's never, it's…”
Morgan Housel Jan 20, 2026 ▶ 17:47 Morgan Housel: Wealth is What You Have Minus What You Want
Jan 20, 2026 positive
Assertion Supported
Housel: Earning Average Market Returns for 50 Years Beats 97% of Investors
“And the idea that let's say if I can be average for 50 years, I'll end up in the top Three percent of investors. That's probably about where it'll be. Historically has been the case that I will outperform 97% of people who tried to beat the market. Maybe it's …”
Morgan Housel Jan 20, 2026 ▶ 1:53:20 Morgan Housel: Wealth is What You Have Minus What You Want
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