stock market
14 statements across 11 episodes · 7 bullish · 3 bearish · 9 people on the record · first statement Dec 8, 2015 by Philip Tetlock · across every show →
Everything said about stock market, oldest first
Dec 8, 2015
Tetlock: Predicting 10-year stock market direction is easier than tomorrow's
“It's very hard to say whether the stock market's going to up or, going to go up or down tomorrow. So that's a short range question. In some ways, it's easier to predict where the stock market's going to be up or down 10 years from now relative to now that it i…”
Aug 30, 2016 neutral
Oct 11, 2017 neutral
Nov 12, 2019 bullish
Jun 9, 2020
Aug 4, 2020 positive
Poker improves investors by preventing them from deflecting blame to external noise
“That people say that poker can really help you in the stock market, and I think that that's true, and the reason it can help you become a better investor and make better decisions is the stock market is so damn noisy that when you make bad decisions, there's a…”
Feb 7, 2023 negative
May 28, 2024 bullish
Housel: A tiny fraction of outlier stocks drives majority of market returns
“It's always going to be the case that a very small number of stocks account for the majority of returns. So recently it's been Fang plus Nvidia. If you didn't own those stocks, Fang plus Nvidia over the last decade, your odds of outperforming are very, very lo…”
Apr 22, 2025 positive
Jun 3, 2025 negative
Jan 20, 2026 positive
Housel: Stock Investors Need at Least a 10-Year Horizon for High Probability Success
“Historically, when we talk about the stock market, a good definition of long-term of like really putting the odds of success in your favor is probably 10 years. Of putting, like, earning a real rate of return after inflation, even within the cyclicality of the…”
Jan 20, 2026 negative
Housel: People Falsely Assume Market Crashes Happen in an Economic Vacuum
“And most people, if you ask them the question, how would you feel psychologically right now if the stock market fell? In that exercise, what they do is they imagine a world where everything is exactly the same as it is today, except stocks are half the price.”
Jan 20, 2026 positive
Housel: Market Volatility Is the Necessary Cost of Admission in Capitalism
“And by and large, what you have to do in capitalism is put up with a never ending chain of uncertainty and volatility and things you didn't see coming. And so it's never fun to deal with that. A recession, a job loss or stock market goes down. It's never, it's…”
Jan 20, 2026 positive
Housel: Earning Average Market Returns for 50 Years Beats 97% of Investors
“And the idea that let's say if I can be average for 50 years, I'll end up in the top Three percent of investors. That's probably about where it'll be. Historically has been the case that I will outperform 97% of people who tried to beat the market. Maybe it's …”