base rates
also referred to as: base rate
3 statements across 3 episodes · 2 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 people on the record · first statement Apr 28, 2015 by Michael Mauboussin · across every show →
Everything said about base rates, oldest first
Apr 28, 2015 positive
Mauboussin: Algorithms improve decisions by removing emotion and utilizing base rates
“They're good at looking at lots of data. They're good at establishing and understanding base rates. So, for example, if you're thinking about an appropriate reference class for a particular decision, your technology will allow you to access that reference clas…”
Oct 19, 2015 positive
Jan 23, 2018
Mauboussin: Base rates rule luck-driven domains; inside views rule skill domains
“And the basic heuristic on this is that if there's a lot of luck, A lot of randomness. You should rely exclusively or almost exclusively on the base rate. If there's a lot of skill, you should rely almost exclusively on the inside view, right? On, on your own …”