why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Nvidia's Peak FLOPs Are Impossible to Hit Due to Power Throttling
“That operation runs at, you know, 70, 80% of peak utilization, and it's limited not by software, but by power. The way NVIDIA quotes peak flops is a little optimistic. You never hit that because of power throttling”
Assertion Supported
Movva: AI Agents Can Now Run Autonomously for an Hour
“Agents are capable of running for an hour at a time. I wouldn't say it's days, but definitely an hour is quite suitable today.”
Assertion Supported
Cerebras Achieves 21PB/s Memory Bandwidth Versus Nvidia Blackwell's 10TB/s
“Cerebus quotes petabytes per second, 21 petabytes per second for their wafer scale engine three. And so, compare that to HBM on an NVIDIA Blackwell is you know, 10 terabytes per second or so in that range.”
Assertion Partly supported
Nvidia Blackwell Has 288GB of HBM but Only 500MB of SRAM
“Blackwell has 288 gigabytes of HBM capacity around the logic die, and the logic die itself maybe only has like 500 megabytes of SRAM. So it's possibly multiple orders of magnitude, three orders of magnitude difference in density for DRAM versus SRAM.”
Assertion Supported
Movva: KV cache frequently exceeds model weight size
“You have to store a representation for every token that we sent through the language model. And it frequently Gets to be larger than the weights of the model themselves.”
Assertion Supported
Movva: Liquid cooling packs a megawatt of compute into eight refrigerator-sized racks
“Like, a megawatt of compute You know, you'd imagine this, like, massive data haul, like a huge warehouse, basically, and now you can actually pack that into, yeah, around, like, around, like, eight racks for the compute. Each rack is about the size of a refrig…”
Assertion Supported
Movva: A Trillion Tokens Costs at Least $5M at OpenAI Pricing
“A trillion tokens, well, okay, at OpenAI pricing, that's at least five million dollars, at the very least, for 5.5 or 5.6.”