“Like my rule of thumb is one percent market share is going to be worth a hundred billion.”
quote is from the automated transcript, cleaned for reading:
filler sounds and stutters are removed, nothing is rephrased. names can be misheard
(the analysis reads context, assessments check outside sources). how →
More from Gavin Baker
PredictionOpen · timeframe Dec 2026
Baker: OpenAI and Anthropic will probably exceed $200B ARR this year
“So I think the shift to usage based pricing is probably why you will see OpenAI and Anthropic exceed well over two hundred billion dollars in ARR this year.”
Gavin BakerMay 20, 2026▶ 39:04Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
AssertionNot checkable as stated
Baker: Open-Source AI Frontier Consists of Chinese Models Using Stolen US Tokens
“Open source frontier, which today consists of, you know, Chinese models with stolen American tokens.”
Gavin BakerMay 20, 2026▶ 56:06Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
AssertionSupported
Baker: Anthropic Added $11 Billion ARR in One Month
“And what I just mean by that is in Anthropik, they added eleven billion dollars of AR. And what is astonishing to me about this is that The SaaS and cloud revolution it created, we'll call it between five and 10 trillion dollars of value. And I would say argua…”
Gavin BakerMay 20, 2026▶ 2:17Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
Opinion
Closure of Strait of Hormuz Is Net Beneficial for US Economy
“That the Strait of Hormuz being closed is actually relatively awesome for America.”
Gavin BakerMay 20, 2026▶ 6:02Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
PredictionNot checkable as stated
Baker: NVIDIA could sell $2T-$3T in GPUs in 2026-2027 if TSMC expanded enough
“If Taiwan Simi did what Jensen wanted, I think NVIDIA could sell two trillion dollars of GPUs. In 20, in 26 or 27. Maybe two and a half trillion. Maybe three trillion.”
Gavin BakerMay 20, 2026▶ 25:58Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
PredictionOpen · timeframe May 2036
Baker: Disaggregated inference will extend GPU lifespans to 10-15 years
“And the disaggregation of inference means that I think these GPUs are going to have 10 or 15 year lives.”
Gavin BakerMay 20, 2026▶ 49:23Watts, Wafers, and the Future of AI Infra | Gavin Baker · Invest Like The Best
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