why aren't all 2,678 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 42 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not yet assessed · timeframe Nov 2025
Dawber: London Mayor banned Accenture from contracts after it abandoned DEI
“When Accenture And I'll name them. When Accenture said, right, we're abandoning DEI. Our mayor Sadiq Khan, who was, is obviously, you know, comes from a Pakistani background. His parents came to London as immigrants when and you know, is, is very much reflecti…”
Insight
Chadha: Patriarchy hurts men the most; violence against women is the symptom
“Because if there's anything patriarchy hurts, it's men. We are just the symptoms. We just get, there's just domestic violence and rape and violence of all kinds against women, yes. But who really suffers, who never has an outlet, who never has the strength to …”
Assertion Contradicted
Panigrahi claims Indian clinics are curing Alzheimer's using exosome therapy.
“There are players who do stem cell rejuvenation. They are curing dementia and Alzheimer through exosome therapy or stem cell rejuvenation.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Anderson claims she is confident she will never develop Alzheimer's disease
“I tell people I can confidently say I will never develop Alzheimer's.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Chadha: India will become the world's cancer capital within two years
“Mark my words, in the next two years, India is going to be the cancer capital of the world as well.”
Disclosure
Chronologix AI probes suicidal ideation instead of immediately escalating to humans
“With contextual engineering, the difference of, I'm thinking of killing myself, and conversational gets pushed right up. With contextually engineered interpretation, we're going to ask you, when did you first start thinking about killing yourself? Have you cre…”
Prediction Open · timeframe Jun 2031
Brown: AI will lead to more lawyers than ever before
“I think that there will be more lawyers than ever before.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Marini: Grindr turnaround team terminated 70% of employees
“We ended up, and we don't normally do this terminating 70% of the employees, because it just, they were C players, and we wanted at least A minus players, if not A players, right?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ranjan: AI Will Stop Hallucinating Before Hallucination-Fixing Startups Can Launch
“There are companies which I looked at, which said, well, AI hallucinates. So we are going to go do this. And my thinking is, by the time you go do this, AI will stop hallucinating.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2036
Brown predicts as many humanoid robots as dogs and cats within a decade
“In the next decade, I believe that there's going to be as many humanoid robots as there's going to be dogs and cats on this planet.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Yang: Quantum computing and large models will achieve indistinguishable consciousness
“I truly believe that specifically the quantum computing based processors and big, large models. Will be indistinguishably conscious.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Venkatachalam: In 20 years all humans will need new jobs
“In 20 years, I'm actually hoping I become an AI chatbot now, meaning I think that AI will be doing things that we can't even imagine all of us will need new jobs.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Johnson: AI Will Destroy Traditional Startup Product-Market Fit Metrics
“I think that that entire conversation will be destroyed. Every investor I've ever talked to since the time I started in investments has talked about, like, do you have the product market fit? Do you have differentiation? Like, what's, how can you gain differen…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Kaplan: AI Will Function as an Autonomous, Alien Intelligence Within Five Years
“When I go out, you know, five plus years, I realize that this is not really a tool. What's happening is we're having a technology that's more like an intelligent entity. It's more, it's closer to an alien intelligence than it is a tool, and this alien intellig…”
Opinion
Kaplan: Democratic AI Resists Bad Actors Better Than Monolithic Silicon Valley LLMs
“I think that's a much more sort of robust and resistant to bad actor kind of design than having one giant LLM. You don't know how it operates because that's another problem. They're big black boxes and the value system was programmed in by five people at open …”
Opinion
Dr. Shubha Vilas: Clinical psychological therapy is not a long-term solution
“Therapy is not long-term solution. No clinical psychologist will say that therapy is the long-term solution to problems in life.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ahuja: Enterprises will soon operate people-less, AI agent-only GCCs
“And I think the time is not far when you would have, you know, bolt-ons or even GCCs that'll have no people. You can Do it in your backyard. You can do it on your computer, and you know, ah, so I think it's coming.”
Opinion
Dawber: London is the city New York pretends to be
“I think London is the city that New York pretends it is. It is a city where anyone, anyone can make it and anything's possible.”
Opinion
DiAgostaro: Accelerator Demo Days do not work for venture capitalists
“Sitting in a room for hours watching pitches of founders that aren't, that don't fit your thesis is a huge waste of time for VCs. They would much rather be on, you know, on the phone having one-on-one calls with people catching up and hearing about a deal thro…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Devillieres: AI will reduce white-collar jobs tenfold while doubling human output
“And so, in the grand scheme of things, I just think that AI is going to do to white collar, like repetitive intellectual work, what machines did to physical work, which is we'll go 10 weeks less number of jobs, two weeks the output, and people are going to be …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Joseph: Software and AI engineers will be the first roles eliminated
“Now AI has made it so easy for people who has domain knowledge to build software. So the biggest Threat that software engineers and AI engineers created is for themselves. Like, you know, that they are the ones who are going away first in, and, you know, the, …”
Opinion
Wharton: China Subsidizes Cleantech with Free Capital, Land, and Below-Cost Dumping
“Well, the Chinese basically in certain sectors like solar and cars and batteries, they give away free land, free labor, free capital. Sometimes it's slave labor in some cases. So that's not like, that's not free trade. And then even with all that, then they se…”
Disclosure
Heiss: Canceled SAP contract because SAP wanted to sell user data
“We had a contract with SAP, which I canceled because I figured out that they wanted to sell our users data, which is, I said, no, there's no way.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Heiss: MyAutoData will eventually outgrow Meta
“And that's, that is the idea in the long run is to really create this big organization that will outgrow meta at one point in time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Thomas: Tripling renewables and nuclear cannot meet 2050 global energy demand
“If we could wave a magic wand and triple our output of all of our renewables, And include nuclear in there. Triple all of that. That doesn't get us to 52,000 terawatts. You still need fossil fuel. You still need oil. You still need coal. And in fact, we're goi…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Jeffrey: Next-gen AI labs are seeing $12B valuations at napkin stage
“I've seen back of the napkin Back of the napkin ideas of next gen tier one, AI labs that are valued at twelve billion dollars, starting with two billion of cash and are definitely going to raise again in 18 months, you know, to buy now.”
Insight
Jeffrey: AI automating routine tasks causes burnout through nonstop cognitive load
“When in computer science, often you'll hear people say like, hey, like maybe I'm a system design architect, right? And I, my job is to think about like what the big distributed system is going to look like in Google search. Well, you don't spend every minute o…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Jeffrey: AI-supercharged humans, not autonomous machines, will drive job displacement
“And this is gonna be true of your job, my job, everybody's job in the future is like, You take an individual and you make them 10 times faster, a hundred times faster, whatever it is, it's that person that starts to eat up the world of jobs, not like the machi…”
Insight
Memon: Game Designers Can Engineer Player Anger By Changing One Variable
“When you're doing game design or when you're doing behavioral design, one small incentive change, and I can engineer anger in a player. I can make two of you fight by just changing one variable, which might not even be important.”
Assertion Partly supported
Chen: SpaceX IPO completed at a $2.2T valuation
“You know, you hear about the space exes that just, you know,
Finally one IPO with a 2.2 trillion dollar valuation.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2026
Chen: OpenAI and Anthropic will follow SpaceX with IPOs in 2026
“Obviously later this year we're following with some other big names and OpenAI and Anthropic.”
Insight
Rakhmetzhanov: Data center outages stem from civil engineering design flaws
“The reason behind those outages is mainly the cooling and systems and power generation and connectivity systems, because data centers were designed, engineered from a civil engineering point of view.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Chadha: Countries shielded from war and recession share one trait: female leaders
“We're seeing that in the current geopolitical world, and, ah, I want to say the countries that are so far isolated, not just from economic, ah, flux, but from war, from terrorism, from recession, they have female leaders. When we look at the Scandic countries,…”
Insight
Chadha: Why 500-crore Bollywood films are riskier than small-budget slates
“The currently, the thing is, oh, you know, we can give 500 crores for a big actors film, and then we'll make thousand crores. More likely to lose that 506 hundred crores, because it doesn't end there. India has a very high exhibitor tax. You're better off inve…”
Assertion Contradicted
Chadha: South India had only three recorded cancer cases before 1970
“Till the 19 seventies, I think in all of South India, there was like three recorded cases of cancer.”
Opinion
Chadha: Western AI data centers draining Indian water is modern colonization
“Again, the West is doing this. It's a new form of colonization. And we will use water from India to cool off data centers, data that they will use in the West.”
Insight
Chilla: Ignoring Foundational Values Early On Permanently Ruins Scaling Startups
“It's a disastrous noise. Values can't come back. You have to start from the foundation, you know, once, I mean, we've heard of a lot of startup examples blowing up, you know, because once you reach a certain size, it's impossible to, you know, sort of revert.”
Insight
Massay: Disclosing AI upfront increases voter conversation length
“I think what we've found is really interesting is more and more people will actually be comfortable and have longer conversations when you disclose that they're talking to an AI agent in the beginning, which you, yeah, you wouldn't think so.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Brown: Traditional high-rate law firms will shrink or shutter within a decade
“I think there's no way the legal industry looks the same as it does in five and 10 years. I think that some law firms will be skeletons of what they were. I think that some law firms that do things that ultimately doesn't make sense for humans to be doing at a…”
Assertion Partly supported
Khan: Poor hiring and leadership cause nearly 24% of startup failures
“About 25, almost 24% of startups will fail because of either hiring poor hiring management decisions or just general leadership problems. So these are the sort of Mesh issues that they deal with, and that is the third leading cause of startup death. It's above…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Khan: Startups hiring ATS-rejected talent will build numerous unicorns
“This is the greatest, that is the greatest pool of brilliance sitting out there right now who cannot make it past the applicant tracking system, the ATS right now. But once we can tap into that, I mean, now you're sitting on unicorn after unicorn after unicorn…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Port: AI will not replace all jobs due to token and engineering costs
“I think some of the nervousness around is AI going to replace all of our jobs. One of the reasons it's not is because AI is not for free and you know, the tokens that support AI, the technology, the time that is needed, the engineering time. To build the agent…”
Disclosure
Port: Okta evaluates every role for AI agent automation or relocation
“I mean, right now we're looking at every single role, every single hire and saying, could some of this be done by an agent? Could some of this be done in a different location?”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Port: Every Employee Will Soon Manage Both Humans and AI Agents
“A hundred percent.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Marini: Conservative ICs and Middle East Investors Refused to Buy Grindr
“Now, because Grindr is focused on LGBTQ, it was really interesting. A lot of the traditional buyers were not there in the process. There was always like someone conservative on the investment committee that was like, we can't touch that. We went to try to rais…”
Insight
Hari: Simulating humanness requires smaller, flawed AI models, not larger ones
“However, humanness, which is what, how I behave in a certain context scenario, how I talk, how I might interrupt another person, how I might express my opinion, that does not require large, large, large models. It actually requires the opposite. Smaller models…”
Assertion Supported
Ranjan: Research Shows Chatbot Usage Correlates With Lower Cognitive Skills
“Research is showing that the more you use these kind of chatbots, the lesser your cognitive skills are, the divergence between the scores.”
Opinion
Ranjan: India's Domestic Deep Tech AI Talent Pool Is Surprisingly Small
“Given the number of Indians who are in the software industry and are in AI, you know, modeling, the number of them who are in the industry / How many of them you would have expected them to be in India is actually relatively lesser.”