Dated predictions and their status, on one timeline. Left of today: already
assessed. Green held up, red didn't hold up, amber partly. Right: still open; when a dot's date hits, the ledger
checks it again against the public record.
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Joel Martin: Value-based care won't reach 20% of healthcare costs by 2035
“Cause I certainly would not bet on It getting to even 20% of cost being covered by value-based care within the decade, for sure. I think it'll be for sure longer than that.”
Prediction Held up
Rolf: AI Agents Will Become Economic Actors That Transact Money
“So you have general AI agents. It's very early days, but they will become economic actors. They will buy things. They will sell things. They will you know, conceptually push the button to move money.”
Prediction Held up
Ahuja: GCC model will expand into luxury retail, automotive, airlines, and restaurants
“They'll become a lot more industry agnostic, all kinds of industries, luxury retailers, You know, automotive companies, airlines, hotels you know, cosmetic companies, right? Restaurants, every, anybody can do a GCC, right?”
Prediction Held up
Schappell: AI agents and LLMs will enter clinical diagnosis and care delivery
“And so they're going to start to get into the diagnosis and delivery of care.”
Prediction Held up
McDowell predicts the US will build a strategic Bitcoin reserve
“If America start building a strategic Bitcoin reserve, which I think they will, they probably already have, right? And they're talking about it now, who knows how long they've been buying for.”
Prediction Held up
Cross: Adversaries will eventually use AI to find zero-days in code
“Is that saying that we're going to use AI to find zero days in source code? We just haven't seen quite the evidence of yet, but we should still be very suspect that it will occur in the future.”
Prediction Partly held up
Khanna: Indian elder care industry will hit $35 billion in a few years
“If you look at it from a dollar value the industry is valued at around 10 to fifteen billion dollars today. Expected to go in a few years to 30, thirty five billion dollars.”
Prediction Held up
Deora: Reliance Jio will launch cloud gaming to bypass console hardware costs
“I think Jio is also going to launch it in India, because that means that today, anyone with a mobile phone, they just have to buy a little controller. They don't have to spend 50,000 rupees, which is what a PS five cost and have a TV screen with an available s…”
Prediction Held up
Lopez: Federal startup funding programs will survive the incoming Trump administration
“While all of that may occur on the large-scale budget items, the non-dilutive sources of capital that I think are the real source of strength for J-II, which is the SBIR contracts, or the SIDR contracts, or the Kratos, and those kinds of things. I don't think …”
Prediction Partly held up
Tandan: Agent traffic on the internet will surpass human traffic by 2027
“The first one is that online traffic will increase in a way that you'll have more agent traffic on the internet than humans by 20, 27 as per cloud flare.”
Prediction Held up
Cross: AI-powered targeted spear phishing is occurring and will increase
“AI, is they're collecting data and public and public information to do very targeted spear phishing, right? And email and things like that. And that is occurring. And it's, or we say that it's very clear that AI is helping those attackers in those cases. So I …”
Prediction Held up
Avanlee Christine predicts more mass layoffs at health plans
“I think we're about to see some more mass layoffs, but unfortunately on the health plan side, but they are still sending people to a few of these conferences.”
Prediction Partly held up
McDowell predicts peak cycle prices: BTC $150k, ETH $10k, SOL $700
“I think realistic targets for this cycle, Bitcoin, a hundred and 150 K Ethereum, probably 10 K plus Solana could go to six, 700.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Mounts: Joby Aviation to launch NYC air taxi routes in 2025
“Joby has done a phenomenal job. We're close with them. They're now starting to launch what's expected and hopefully 20, 25 operations in New York. Just transferring from downtown New York to LaGuardia or JFK, and we'd like to see that scale very quickly.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Jadhav: Bold Care will likely reach profitability this year
“Profitability as a company is very important to us now. You know, we're trending and fairly close to it now should be there, hope within this year, most likely.”
Prediction Held up
Karmi: The first autonomous agentic transactions will emerge in 2025
“We'll see a few agentic transactions or autonomous payments even this year.”
Prediction Held up
Bakshi: Early Indications Suggest VC Exits Will Improve in 2025
“And actually we're hoping, 25 is better. We're hoping we see more exits. And in our senses, it, at least early indications are that it will be better. We are certainly cautiously optimistic.”