why aren't all 45 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Varanasi: No single large company today is not vertically integrated
“What's ironic to really think about is there is not a single large company in the world today that is not vertically integrated. There's just none.”
Insight
Varanasi: Small teams should ask peers, not just managers, who to fire
“A lot of times when you go to a team that's six or seven or 10 people, more than the manager, I think it's actually better to ask everybody else that works with in that team who should be fired.”
Insight
Varanasi: If you think about the person, the person is the problem
“If you're spending your time thinking about the person instead of the problem, the person is the problem.”
Opinion
Kanter: Venture capital makes far more sense for high achievers than bootstrapping
“So as a high agency person, being able to remove the fundamental constraint of capital as the limiting factor of a business, like, to me, it's like the equivalent of going pro. I think that there's vastly more cases in which venture capital makes sense for a h…”
Insight
Kanter: Execution is definitely not a moat in software
“Very common thing people say in software in, in, in venture. Oh, the only execution, the only mode is execution, which is not, which is definitely not a mode.”
Insight
Kanter: The quality-price-speed trade-off is an illusion
“They say, okay, well, you know, quality, price, and speed, you have to pick two. And I think that that is like the most losing mindset in business and engineering and design and whatever the thing is. And that the trade-offs between those three are usually an …”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Stauch: Product-oriented forward-deployed engineers will reduce PM and SE hiring
“I think the need for a lot of product managers is probably going to go down. If you hire really product oriented for deployed software engineers, then they're going to be increasingly making the decisions on what makes sense to build for the max Some number of…”
Insight
Asthana: Products committed to user experience cannot succeed as open source
“What I learned was that for something that has a commitment to end user experience, you cannot do it with open source.”
Insight
Younis: Startups Are Not Meritocratic; Connected Founders Perform Better
“The other uncomfortable truths are like the rule is the mostly the highly educated, connected founders do better than the not highly educated, connected founders. Like the top, like people, I think we want to have this feeling that it's egalitarian and or it's…”
Opinion
Younis: Silicon Valley secondary cash-outs before failure are borderline fraud
“And so then the kind of the little bit of the fraud that's happening in Silicon Valley, which people often don't talk about, is like, goal is raise big rounds, take some secondary, and YOLO. And if the company goes to zero, or the company has a big downturn in…”
Opinion
Cramer: Founders can turn almost any software into a $100M business today
“You can basically turn anything into a hundred million dollar business these days. Like the technology is really big. The world's really big, you know, as long as we don't figure out tariffs on technology. And so I think you actually don't even have to think t…”
Opinion
Cramer: Sentry's tracing product drives 20% of revenue despite lacking PMF
“We have this tracing product. It is, you know, something, it's at least 20% of our business. At our scale, you would call that, like, at least a good entry level success. And I would tell you, I don't think the product is very good. I don't think it remotely h…”
Opinion
Cramer: Dropbox looks like an innovation failure despite its strong revenue
“Even though I would largely say Dropbox looks like a failure from the outside, like, or to me, from my point of view of like, they haven't really done much. They make a lot of money. And so it's a successful business, you know, just like IBM somehow is still a…”
Disclosure
Cramer: Sentry targets every customer of rival startups reaching $10M ARR
“If you get, I don't know, say your ten million in revenue, we will come after every logo you have. We haven't done it that much, but we have gone after two companies, and they basically don't exist anymore.”
Insight
Song: The best companies can hire anyone and make them successful
“Great companies hire great people. The best companies can hire anyone. And when I read that, I was like, that is such a You know, such a banger. It's so interesting. Cause you know, again, that's another like Silicon Valley line, which is you just have to hire…”
Insight
Software customizability is 'stupid' for small businesses because it hurts sales
“So from the beginning, we took this very contrarian stance that customizability is stupid. What we actually want is this proven system that has all of the best practices out of the box in a way that the small business owner can't screw up, and we're not going …”
Insight
Startups should treat competitors as free R&D factories and shamelessly copy successes
“You can think of them as free research and development factories, where they're constantly running a bunch of experiments on the same group of customers, and when some of those experiments Work well. It makes a ton of sense to just shamelessly copy that approa…”
Opinion
Handy: Lean Startup and Y Combinator frameworks fundamentally misunderstand innovation
“I understand there's a lean startup approach and there's Y Combinator and all this. I actually am not a big supporter of these approaches because I think fundamentally what they're trying to say is you can take the process of innovation and you can put a metho…”
Insight
McCabe: Employees who complain about non-company issues are bad culture fits
“Hey, it turns out that the employees who would constantly complain about things not related to the company are actually not a good fit and not the type of people that we need to be really successful.”
Disclosure
McCabe: Intercom stack ranks all employees quarterly using an algebraic score
“The manager simply rates the employee's performance against their goals for the quarter, because we set goals every quarter, and their behavior against each value from one to five. Plugs that into a little form. Some very basic algebra is done. Spits out a num…”
Disclosure
McCabe: Intercom enforces quarterly bottom-tier quotas with fast-track termination PIPs
“So imagine two percent of people got the bottom rating, but I, my, by my own appraisal, look around the organization and say, this is not good enough. I want three, four, five percent of people to get the bottom rating. Then you're very prescriptive about what…”
Disclosure
McCabe: Cut Intercom headcount by 27% and removed most HR upon return
“When I went back, I decreased the size of the company by 27%. Got rid of most of HR. Got rid of most of our policies and practices and all the grown-up stuff.”
Insight
Muthukumar: Great brands cannot be built without micromanagement
“I would say on this point of like micromanagement, I maybe have a contrarian point of view in that I don't think good brands are made without micromanagement.”
Opinion
Schillace: Google Docs has become a complicated, bloated version of Microsoft Office
“To be honest, like, I'm a little bit sad at the state of Gdocs these days because I think they're losing sight of the idea that, you know, they're kind of turning it into Office and like making it very complicated to use again. And I find lots of things broken…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
MacInnis: A top SMB payroll rival lost its edge by adopting Workday
“This company, you know, is pretty well known, and they've got a good SMB payroll business going, but like, at a certain scale, they switched to Workday. When they switched to Workday, they stopped using their own product, and when they stopped using their own …”
Opinion
MacInnis: 98% of coaching is vapid blood sucking by poor operators
“Coaching is stupid. Most of it is just vapid blood sucking on the part of people who weren't very good operators and decided to make a career charging people by the hour to tell them how to be good operators. That's like 98% of the market.”
What-if
Better execution on Dropbox Paper could have prevented Notion's rise
“One can argue there if Dropbox paper Had, you know, maybe launched at a different time or a different way, there would be no notion, potentially.”
What-if
Oliver Jay: Dropbox could have eliminated Box with better enterprise execution
“I would say, there's a scenario where there is no box, and I think that was, Dropbox could have made that happen”
Opinion
Blank: World-Class Silicon Valley Founders Are Antisocial and From Dysfunctional Families
“The data says the world-class ones, at least the ones that make it in Silicon Valley and the ones that get funded are completely antisocial and probably come from usually dysfunctional families.”
Insight
Blank: Dysfunctional upbringings produce high-functioning founders but ill-functioning humans
“That's probably the cruelest, but most effective training ground to make high functioning entrepreneurs and probably ill functioning human beings.”
Insight
Blank: Effective therapy makes entrepreneurs ineffective founders for subsequent startups
“What they really need is a good therapist. Unfortunately, it makes them, if they get good therapy, it makes them an ineffective founder for their next one because you beat that. That intensity out of them.”
Insight
Zima: Product management is not a craft, but domain expertise and caring
“I don't think PM is a craft at all, which is probably evident from my previous answers about, you know, the process. Like, I think a PM is literally the intersection of caring a lot and then having some domain expertise.”
Insight
Noronha: Design-oriented creative software cannot succeed under a 996 work culture
“Creative products that are oriented around creating that special experience that are often about restraint and doing less, I don't think are very well served by this mindset. They're well served by creating space for exploring multiple different paths in paral…”
Insight
Varanasi: OKRs only work for money-printing monopolies like Google
“If you have a money printing machine, you should have that kind of stuff, but for everybody else, it's different.”
Insight
Kanter: Founders who hate their companies only have themselves to blame
“When it came down to it and you probed these questions of what they were looking for is basically they had, they disliked the business that they ended up building. And to me, like, that's a kind of a crazy situation to get yourself into. Cause it's your fault.…”
Insight
Overhyped failure is much better for startups than dying in obscurity
“I think there's only one right answer, which is it's much better to be overhyped and then fail. I mean, obviously within the realms of morality and integrity, but I was, I sort of learned like, I don't want to be an obscure product that no one cares about.”
Opinion
Cramer: Corporate sales teams are generally wildly dysfunctional and wasteful
“Sales teams, generally speaking, at companies are wildly dysfunctional and waste lots of money and lots of time on stuff that doesn't amount to anything.”
Opinion
McCabe: The MBA managerial approach is useless for building great companies
“That is like the professional managerial class. That's the MBA way. And that's useless in building great companies. You need people with strong opinions in my humble opinion.”
Insight
McCabe: Only people who hate corporate life can build great companies
“The only people who can start and build great companies are people who hate corporate life. And the people who love corporate life can't build and start great companies.”
Opinion
McCabe: Servant leadership and 'leading from behind' is performative posturing
“And I don't mean that like lead from behind, like service CEO. I think that's a bunch of ego bullshit. People say that try and look good and look cool. My humble opinion.”
Insight
MacInnis: Effective second-in-commands enable CEOs to act with impunity
“The CEO job, the most successful CEOs act with impunity in the work environment in a way that number one, a good CEO doesn't really think about it. And number two, a good second in command does think about that and enable it.”
Insight
MacInnis: CEOs who embrace coaching perform worse as executives
“I'm friends with many CEOs who I've, you know, met over the years of having been one and then doing this job, and the folks who are really into the coaching and really into the touchy-feely stuff for themselves on the balance just have not performed as well as…”
Opinion
MacInnis: Product marketing rarely demands deep first-principles thinking
“If you look into the ocean of product marketers, it's kind of like shopping at Ross. It is not a job that demands a lot of really deep first principles thought from people in the job.”
Insight
Zima: Rigorous feature prioritization frameworks are a waste of time
“I just, I really think it's hard to come up with a great, like scoring framework for how to pick out the next 10 features, because I found that every single time that we tried to apply some sort of rigorous, like scoring framework to difficulty and reach and Y…”
Opinion
Berson: Modeling startup cultures after Google caused net damage to the ecosystem
“I'd also argue that a lot of people trying to model their orgs and culture after Google has probably created
More damage to our ecosystem than sort of positive outcomes.”