why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Carbon removal will become a trillion-dollar industry at $100-$200 per ton
“So, you know, we think that In a medium to long term, the carbon price is likely going to be in the hundred to 200 dollar per ton mark, and at that cost, for five to ten billion tons, we were talking about a trillion dollars worth of carbon removal industry.”
Assertion Supported
Heirloom's direct air capture is 5,000 to 10,000 times more land-efficient than trees
“So compared to trees, these are actually about Five to 10,000 times more land efficient.”
Opinion
Synthetic direct air capture materials are too expensive to scale globally
“So the traditional way folks have gone about it was basically to build a novel material artificially. But the problem was not whether you could capture the CO two. The problem was the cost of making that material. And because the supply chains don't exist, you…”
Assertion Supported
Heirloom operates North America's first direct air capture and storage plant
“Yeah, so this is the first director capture facility in North America that captures and stores CO₂ from the air.”
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Carbon removal credit prices will eventually coalesce around $300 per ton
“And, you know, there's, we think that the price is going to coalesce around 300 dollars per ton, given where the supply and demand, ah, is.”
Insight
Emissions reductions alone cannot prevent climate change without removing billions of tons
“We can't just reduce emissions anymore. It won't be enough to stop climate change if you've emitted too much. And, you know, you can reduce emissions you've already emitted, so we have to start removing some of that carbon from the atmosphere. By some I mean i…”
Assertion Contradicted
Humanity produces only three commodities at the billion-ton scale
“So it's three things. It's cement, steel, and fossil fuels.”
Assertion Supported
Heirloom's lime trays capture atmospheric CO2 and become limestone within days
“We stack these baking trays vertically To, you know, 2030, 40, 50 feet, and you effectively have a very tall baking rack with trays with thin layers of lime, and as the air passes through, basically gobbles up that CO₂, and in a few days it turns into calcium …”
Disclosure
Heirloom signed a multi-hundred million dollar carbon removal deal with Microsoft
“This year we signed a contract with Microsoft. It's about 315,000 tons. It's a multi-hundred million dollar deal.”
Assertion Supported
Heirloom won a $600M DOE grant for a Louisiana carbon capture hub
“The next facility is, you know, recently we won this directory capture hub award from the Department of Energy. So we won about six hundred million dollars to build a facility that can scale up to a million tons a year, and that is Southwest Louisiana.”
Assertion Supported
Direct air capture must extract one CO2 molecule per 2,500 air molecules
“You're pulling one molecule of CO two out of every 2500 molecules. So fundamentally it's a You know, an expensive gas separation problem.”
Assertion Supported
Limestone costs $30-$40 per ton and constitutes 4% of Earth's crust
“So we found that limestone specifically is, you know, you can get this stuff for like 30, 40 bucks a ton. There's trillions of tons of limestone across the world. There's four percent of the earth's crust.”