The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Altman: AI is automating creative jobs before blue-collar labor
“You know, the strong consensus Five, 10 years ago, was that first of all the AI was going to come for the blue-collar jobs. Second of all would be the less sophisticated white-collar jobs. Third of all would be the very high cognitive load white-collar jobs li…”
Sam Altman Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 48:03 HIBT Lab! OpenAI: Sam Altman
Assertion Supported
Altman: OpenAI's board can wipe equity to zero for safety
“We also have something in our documents which says if we need to for safety, the board can just totally wipe out everyone's equity value to nothing.”
Sam Altman Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 32:39 HIBT Lab! OpenAI: Sam Altman
Assertion Supported
Altman: OpenAI charter permits shutting down to merge with leading rivals
“And we have something called the merge and assist clause, which says, similar to that, if another effort's ahead, and we want to avoid a race condition we can just shut down and merge with some other effort.”
Sam Altman Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 32:46 HIBT Lab! OpenAI: Sam Altman
Assertion Supported
Altman: Deep neural networks showed performance scaling with compute in 2012
“And then in 2012 deep neural networks started to work. And not only did they start to work, it appeared that the more compute you threw at them, the better they got.”
Sam Altman Sep 29, 2022 ▶ 15:19 HIBT Lab! OpenAI: Sam Altman
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