why aren't all 16 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps is five to seven years away from a billion dollars
“We've got a good five to seven years to continue to build towards that billion dollars.”
Insight
Ali: Economies of scale do not automatically unlock higher gross margins
“Economies of scale don't necessarily unlock incremental gross margin. You need to challenge your bill of materials, challenge the way it's being produced, challenge everything to figure out, okay,
Do I want an artisanal one-off product because of the price po…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Ali: Consumers will eventually experience fatigue with the protein trend
“We think, like, at some point with any trend, there will be consumer fatigue.”
Insight
Ali: Getting products into retail stores is easier than sustaining sales velocity
“Getting into the retailer is honestly the easiest part of the process. It's staying and performing.”
Insight
Ali: D2C frozen meat shipping has no path to profitability without scale
“What we figured out was shipping frozen without scale, there's no path to profitability, and because the business was like self-funded, we had to figure out a way to make it profitable”
Disclosure
Ali: Chomps shifted beef sourcing to Australia over US quality issues
“We were, we had a few domestic partners, but we actually started having some quality challenges because I think the way that they process it and measure the lean point, it's a, they call it core drilling where they'll, they'll drill and measure and get an aver…”
Assertion Supported
Ali: Chomps valued at about $200M in 2022 minority deal
“About 200.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps can grow for two years without new products
“We can grow with our existing line. We don't need to launch more products to grow, at least in the next two years.”
Disclosure
Ali matched Maldonado's tiny $3,250 initial investment to co-found Chomps
“I mentioned how much had he invested and he was like, it was at 32 53,250 dollars, I think is what he had put up. So I cut a check and match that.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Uncrate feature proved Chomps had appeal beyond CrossFit and paleo
“Our consumer prior to that was, Primarily CrossFit, paleo, whole 30, like very focused. And uncrate is just like your general guy, right? Where it's like your 20 or 30 something that was just interested in it, and it showed, oh, wow, the product has a lot more…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Trader Joe's order required 150,000 lbs of meat vs. normal 10-15k monthly
“So, so 10 to 15 was our normal click. This required us to do about a 150,000 pounds.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Rashid Ali: Every new Trader Joe's SKU nearly doubled Chomps' business
“I mean, Trader Joe's, every time we launched another SKU, the business would almost double.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps brought 40% new consumers into jerky category at one retailer
“And I think also there's one stat, like with one of our retailers, we were bringing 40% new folks to the jerky set.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps reached $100M+ in revenue with fewer than 40 employees
“We're just under 40 right now.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Founder Tension at Chomps Revolved Around Going Full-Time
“A lot of the tension was around when we both would go full-time.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Ali: Chomps operates three manufacturing facilities and three packaging lines
“No, I mean, we've, we have now three separate manufacturing facilities and three packaging lines running simultaneously, and we went ahead and ordered six more.”