The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Guy Raz predicts AI podcasts will be profitable within five years
“In, in, within five years, AI generated podcasts will be, they already are pretty good. They will be so good that people will make money out for them, and my value will probably be going, doing things live.”
Guy Raz Jun 16, 2025 ▶ 1:06:59 Figma: Dylan Field
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Guy Raz: Surfing helmet adoption will mirror skiing within 10 to 20 years
“Yeah, and I've seen it more and more in California. I see more and more people wearing helmets, and I think in 1020 years, it's just, we're gonna look back and be like, people didn't wear helmets surfing? That was, it's like skiing.”
Guy Raz Aug 15, 2024 ▶ 42:33 Advice Line with Holly Thaggard of Supergoop!
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Raz: By 2025, many interviewed founders will have launched during lockdown
“I think in five years time, I'm going to be doing tons of interviews with people who came up with their ideas during this period.”
Guy Raz May 30, 2020 ▶ 8:26 How I Built Resilience: Live with Alli Webb and Andy Puddicombe & Rich Pierson
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Raz: Touring Plans expects around $1.5 million in revenue this year
“Meanwhile, he expects touring plans will make about one and a half million dollars this year.”
Guy Raz May 6, 2019 ▶ 56:46 Framebridge: Susan Tynan (2017)
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