why aren't all 14 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Elkabetz: Ultra-precise global weather forecasting will arrive within 3-4 years
“I believe that with the kind of constellation that we're putting in, in space and the kind of products we're working on, This capability will be available globally, not even in a decade, in let's say three to four years max.”
Opinion
Elkabetz: VC funded dog-walking apps over deep-tech climate solutions
“It wasn't easy to raise money for such a business. It was actually pretty painful. And for me, it was, I don't want to say insulting or offensive, but it was pretty sad to see, you know, dog walking apps raising Three hundred million dollars when you present a…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Elkabetz: Defense and space industry partners initially called Tomorrow.io's radar impossible
“So we went to partners, you know, from government agencies to big defense companies and space companies to startups, and we asked companies, hey, this is the spec we're looking for because we want to cover the world with active radars. Can you build it? And ev…”
What-if
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io would have raised SPAC cash in 2021
“If we did it, you know, in 2021, we would probably be able to raise that money which is really why we wanted to go after it. The significant amount of cash would have enabled us to go after the full business plan, but the macro changed.”
Disclosure
Tomorrow.io plans 30-satellite constellation launch starting Q1 2023
“Yeah, we're launching about 30 satellites starting Q-one of twenty-twenty-three. The launches will take throughout twenty-twenty-four as well, and we're launching a combination, it's actually a constellation of two type of sensors.”
What-if
Elkabetz: Radar monitoring over ocean would make hurricane forecasts significantly more reliable
“I think it is pretty agreed upon the scientific community that if we had Good monitoring of hurricanes as they evolve all the way to hitting the mainland with radars, then the forecast accuracy, meaning the output of the models, would have been much more relia…”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io satellites will create a binary improvement in global weather monitoring
“In most of the world, it's going to create a binary improvement. What do I mean by that? You go south of the border to Mexico, believe it or not, it's pretty challenging to understand what's happening in real time. If it's raining or not, in Mexico City is an …”
Insight
Elkabetz: Most Investors Rely on Proven Templates and Lack Deep-Tech Risk Tolerance
“Investors usually look for the, you know, highest return in the shortest amount of time. They look for templates and they look to check all the boxes of things that worked well. And if they go outside of these boxes, then they're taking another risk. So it's n…”
Disclosure
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io's full satellite constellation costs roughly $100M
“When we look at the entire constellation cost end to end, including the launches, we're looking at roughly a hundred million dollars.”
Disclosure
Tomorrow.io is shifting observation to space because ground IoT data has geographical limits
“Today, I must say, we're going to space to improve observations because the weather of things approach is super cool, super geeky, but It's limited, to be completely honest. You don't have devices over the ocean, you don't have access to devices in every count…”
Disclosure
Tomorrow.io designs its radar payloads in-house and outsources satellite buses
“We definitely Own the IP, we design the payload, we design the entire mission, and we use contractors to help us in doing things that we don't want to do.”
Opinion
Elkabetz: Weather Is the Single Most Dangerous Factor in Military Aviation
“Weather is probably the number one variable and the most challenging factor for every training mission, every operational mission. And I was super worried about weather, more than malfunction, more than human error, more than even the enemy.”
Assertion Supported
Elkabetz: No existing commercial LEO satellites carry atmospheric radar
“None of them has a radar that is designed to describe the atmosphere. We have imagery satellites. We have infrared satellites that are blocked by the top of the clouds, for example, so they don't see through. And we also have SAR satellites that are actually e…”
Assertion Contradicted
Elkabetz: Tomorrow.io has raised over $250 million
“We raised north of two hundred and fifty million dollars until today.”