why aren't all 29 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
PayPal sold to eBay primarily because the team was completely exhausted
“The reason ultimately eBay was able to acquire us is because the team was so overloaded over the four years of previous life.”
Opinion
Collison: PayPal was designed for consumers, not scalable business integration
“So the basic issue with PayPal was that it's designed for consumers, not for businesses. And so if you're building an app, if you're building, you know, a website, if you're building a new marketplace, something like this, PayPal works okay for sending, you kn…”
Assertion Supported
Zennström: Skype Was the Largest Post-Dot-Com Internet Acquisition Globally
“The largest Internet M&A before us was PayPal to eBay, right? One point by a billion. And So this was like two X. And then you had. This is amazing. YouTube. YouTube was also 1.6 billion or something like that. Yeah. Also the same year with Google. So this was…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Reid Hoffman's advice on securing assets sparked PayPal's electronic wallet pivot
“Reid was one of the more prescient
Grains who was sort of like, hey, you can secure other things. Maybe you can like secure invoices or secure IOUs or, you know, secure something that kind of is valuable in and of itself. And that kind of pushed us close enou…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Early PayPal screened against frat culture in favor of rigorous intellectual debate
“One of the interesting accusations that sometimes is leveled against the early PayPal crew is that it was this idea of a frat culture. It's actually quite the opposite. You know, if anything, we were screening against this idea of sort of a self-righteous, pri…”
Insight
A 50/50 equity split caused the bitter internal battles at PayPal
“And then you merge, and it's a fifty-fifty merger, which means just no one knows who won. And that's, by the way, sort of the root of all complexity at paypalx.com story is that because we sort of settled on this, well, there's not really a senior partner. Equ…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levchin: PayPal had an intensely combative, truth-seeking culture
“PayPal was this unbelievably combative Kind of a truth-seeking, by any means necessary, almost, culture.”
What-if
Levchin: eBay Should Have Won Payments Race Against PayPal With Billpoint
“And so it was kind of a race, which they should have absolutely won because they had a Product that was supposed to do what we did that they owned, that could be built in, that, you know, could be promoted much, much, much better than we could.”
Opinion
Levchin: Elon Musk is great to debate because he is always rational
“He has an engineer's mindset. So for an engineer, which I certainly am, it's a great person to agree or disagree with because it's always rational.”
Assertion Supported
Levchin: eBay Offered to Buy PayPal to Stop Its 2002 IPO
“Right as we filed to go public, they came in and said, Hey we'll we'll buy you. Don't go public. And we said no.”
Assertion Contradicted
PayPal lost tens of millions per quarter to fraud in mid-2000
“And so by mid June, I think I was starting to sort of become aware of the fact that we're probably losing tens of millions of dollars to these fraudulent activities per quarter.”
Assertion Open · timeframe Mar 2020
Peter Thiel invested $200,000 in Stripe on the spot
“But Peter being such a, sort of, you know, an inveterate contrarian was quite sympathetic to this case, and decided on the spot to make, you know, a fairly material investment of 200,000 dollars.”
Opinion
Patrick Collison: PayPal was designed for consumers, not internet businesses
“So the basic issue with PayPal was that it's designed for consumers, not for businesses. And so if you're building an app, if you're building, you know, a website, if you're building a new marketplace, something like this, PayPal works okay for sending, you kn…”
Opinion
Only top executives were obvious future stars at early PayPal
“I don't think you could have really predicted it. Obviously, Max was already pretty far along for a 24 year old, so it was obvious, you know, he was gonna be someone interesting in the industry, you know, Peter Thiel, same thing. So, you know, I'd say the top …”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gebbia: Top VCs behind Google and Facebook said Airbnb would never work
“I can tell you all the times and show you all the emails from really credible investors, like people that, these, they're investors that picked Google and PayPal and YouTube and Facebook and all of the kind of internet greats that came before us, and so sittin…”
Assertion Supported
Oh Lin: KiwiCo's founding team included YouTube's first engineer and PayPal co-founder
“Ended up bringing on board a co-founder who was a bit more technical, had been in product management. And then I also brought on a technical co-founder, somebody who had been actually a founder of PayPal, was the first engineer at YouTube. And so at first ther…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levchin: PayPal never used its purchasing data for credit scoring
“At PayPal, we had access to all this amazing purchasing data. We never once tried to use it for credit scoring.”
Assertion Supported
PayPal's makeshift web-to-web demo accidentally drove its explosive early growth
“And as a footnote, we had a Web to Web, very much a demo quality product that I threw together to just show how this works if you just don't happen to have any Palm Pilots around. And it's that demo that took off like crazy.”
Assertion Supported
Luke Nosek created PayPal's legendary double-sided $20 referral program
“And then Luke came up with the original viral marketing idea where he had said, hey, what if we gave every new user who signed up 20 bucks, but not just 20 bucks for signing up, but 20 bucks to the person who invited them.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Levchin: PayPal crashed for multiple hours every Monday in 2001
“Every Monday when eBay auctions would settle, the system would just go down for multiple hours.”
Assertion Supported
PayPal faced massive Eastern Bloc fraud attacks in April 2000
“Sometime in April of 2000, we saw just this enormous attacks primarily from my former homeland or the general region, like all those were the Eastern block countries, basically realizing that this is a very loosely secured financial system.”
Assertion Supported
Levchin: PayPal and X.com copied each other and competed on eBay incentives
“They came at payments a little bit after we did, but they had some really good ideas that we didn't have. So very quickly, we start just looking at each other and going, oh, that's a good idea. We'll copy that, and vice versa. And we were in the market just be…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Lake: Stitch Fix created a $20 styling fee to prevent fraud
“The history of the styling fee that we have was that I was worried that you could be a bot or somebody who's going to steal money or steal my clothes. And so I felt like if you were willing to PayPal me 20 dollars before I've even sent you anything, you were p…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
PayPal was in acquisition talks with four companies before Hoffman officially joined
“By the time that I, between I had agreed to join, which is in December and then joined, December, and joined, we were already in conversations with four different companies about buying PayPal.”
Assertion Supported
eBay attempted to route all platform transactions through Billpoint instead of PayPal
“EBay had bought a company called Billpoint, which it owned a hundred percent of, and it launched on its platform, and it wanted everything to go through Billpoint, nothing to go through PayPal.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
PayPal was viewed as a weird niche project when Hoffman joined
“When I joined, it wasn't a hot startup. When I joined, it was kind of thought to be a little weird thing. It was a hot startup by about six months later.”
Assertion Partly supported
Kalin: PayPal was early Etsy's exclusive payment method
“Our exclusive method of payment was PayPal, and so if PayPal worked in that location, then we were able to just
Ride those rails.”
Assertion Supported
Levchin created an early CAPTCHA to protect PayPal from hackers
“Max created that test after PayPal was getting hammered by hackers.”
Assertion Supported
Early PayPal operated solely as a money transfer service, not a bank
“PayPal was doing something very similar. The only difference is they weren't running a bank. They were just kind of a money transfer service.”