why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Graphitic claims its process yields the cheapest non-SMR hydrogen at scale
“I mean, it's still, even without any carbon value, if you build a big plant, this is still, we think, the cheapest sort of non-SMR-based hydrogen that you're going to be able to produce.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Graphitic Energy produces clean hydrogen for $2 to $3 per kilogram
“You know, I thought that decarbonized hydrogen had to come from an electrolyzer and cost, you know, six or nine dollars a kilogram. You guys can do this for two to three?”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Graphitic Energy sees customer demand for 300,000 tons of carbon annually
“So we think that based on conversations we've had with specific customers that we have demand for 300,000 tons a year as produced from our process going directly into their processes and their customers end uses downstream. First of a kind plant will produce a…”
Opinion
The hydrogen market decline is almost entirely confined to electrolysis
“I think that there's no doubt that there's maybe been a decline in a hydrogen interest, but That's really almost entirely hydrogen from electrolysis.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Graphitic's pyrolysis concept required no novel balance-of-plant systems
“And out of that, Came an idea by our technical director of R&D, Sam Shainer, that solved all the challenges of this in a way that required no firsts from a balance of plant perspective.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Graphitic Energy's graphite byproduct is worth 20x its thermal BTU value
“We remove the carbon As a graphite powder, and for the markets that we have lined up for that, it's worth 20 times its BTU value, so 20 times the amount of money you'd get just for burning that carbon and making CO₂ when we extract it as graphite.”
Insight
Methane pyrolysis only became viable after the 2015 fracking boom
“Methane pyrolysis is only interesting if you have low cost natural gas, which hasn't always been the case, and if you are concerned about CO two emissions. And both of those factors really only started in about 2015 or so, once the fracking revolution took off…”
Insight
Deep tech startups need technical leaders to challenge PhDs on problem sequencing
“You need a strong technical leader who can go toe to toe with PhDs or has a PhD themselves to be able to explain this is why we're solving problems in, in this order. And you don't need to worry about that. Until the second of a kind commercial unit. Like, we'…”
Assertion Supported
Technip Energies builds approximately one-third of global hydrogen projects
“A company that does a third of the world's hydrogen projects is wants to put some money into this.”
Opinion
North American TAM for Graphitic Energy's carbon byproduct is 3 million tons
“There's carbon that goes into the steel-making process, into lubricants, into refractories, and so Stephen's really been instrumental in building out what we think is a, you know, three million ton a year total addressable market for our carbon in, in North Am…”
Insight
Fluidized bed reactors require a one-foot diameter to eliminate wall effects
“You need to really get to a foot in diameter with a fluidized bed before you get away from wall effects. So if you can get to a foot in diameter or larger, you can get away from wall effects and be very confident that you can take the data that comes out of th…”
Prediction Held up
Graphitic Energy's single pilot will provide all required commercial scale-up data
“We feel really confident that that will give us all the scale-up data we need. It isn't a, well, we built this pilot because this is what we could kind of get done, and then we kind of have to go build a second one that goes and de-risks these other things. It…”
Disclosure
Graphitic Energy will own and operate its first commercial facility
“Yeah, I think we had to make the decision as a company that we were going to own and operate that first facility because we had some LOIs on the licensing side, and we spent a lot of time having conversations about, well, somebody else is going to go build thi…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Aug 2025
Technip Energies completed FEL-1 engineering studies on Graphitic's technology at scale
“And so, Technib completed their FEL-I studies of our technology at both the minimum efficient scale, which is about six tons of hydrogen a day, and also the maximum efficient scale, which is 270 tons of hydrogen a day, which is a world-scale hydrogen plant.”
Insight
Equipment vendors avoid manufacturing pilot-scale balance-of-plant components
“There are very few vendors that want to build pilot scale pieces of equipment. They're an order of magnitude bigger than things that are built for labs. They're an order of magnitude smaller than pieces of equipment That are built for refineries. So, all the b…”