The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Niedermeyer: Tesla's self-driving pitch works by matching consumer mental models
“And the reason Tesla's been successful at that is not because it's technically plausible at all. It's because it fits exactly what's in the mental model of the American consumer when they hear the word self-driving cars. And Tesla's the only company that's sel…”
Niedermeyer: Autonomy will probably transform logistics before passenger cars
“Oh no, this is probably going to transform supply chain logistics and countless other non-consumer facing applications before It ever changes cars.”
Niedermeyer: Argo AI's shutdown does not mean AV tech doesn't work
“And I think it's very easy to look at this and say, shutting down Argo.ai was an admission that this technology doesn't work, or wasn't going to work, or was a scam. And you look out on social media, and people are taking that lesson away, and I think that's t…”
Niedermeyer: Existing autonomous tech cannot handle general-purpose driving
“The technology that exists today is not up to the task of automating general purpose driving like we do with cars. We can't automate the way we drive cars because it is a multiplicity of tasks. It's in a multiplicity of domains. Like it's just way too much.”
Niedermeyer: Argo AI's collapse represents the popping of the autonomous vehicle bubble
“What has to happen is you have to have the bubbles pop, and that's what things like, you know, Argo.ai going under was, that's what that is. It's a bubble pop.”
Niedermeyer: Auto industry will stay limited to Level 2 and 3 systems
“Those level two, level three, human in the loop systems are where the auto industry is going to be for the near future.”
Niedermeyer: AV hype peaked when the technology was least ready
“So the hype was highest when the technology was, if you experienced it in person, was just obviously not ready. And yet, as the technology got more and more impressive, even to the point where, you know, I've been on a fully driverless ride on public roads in …”