why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Insight
Pinkowski: On-field distributed fertilizer manufacturing hardware is not customer-focused
“They didn't really want another piece of equipment to make fertilizer on the field, and so while that is an elegant and kind of exciting tech vision, it's not customer focused.”
Assertion Contradicted
Pinkowski: Nitricity closed an almost $10M USDA Rural Development loan
“The other thing we then went for is a USDA Rural Development loan, and we worked through the process there, and I'm very proud to say that that is closed, and so that was an almost ten million dollar Rural Development loan.”
Insight
Pinkowski: Distributed on-farm fertilizer tech requires near-zero maintenance to pencil out
“You need really, really reliable technology that virtually never needs to be serviced for that to pencil out.”
Insight
Pinkowski: Pilot plants exist to build operational safety, not just test tech
“But the pilot is more than just to prove the technology can work. The pilot is your team's opportunity to practice running a factory safely and reliably. And that organizationally, you are ready to build your first-of-a-kind commercial factory.”
Disclosure
Pinkowski: Nitricity must cut costs by 10x to compete with conventional fertilizer
“And so to get there, we need to bring down our costs by about a factor of 10.”
Disclosure
Pinkowski: Nitricity needs up to $300M to disrupt conventional fertilizer markets
“Accelerate our transition into the conventional fertilizer marketplace. We can do it. A hundred million would let us, would yeah, we know how. It would require a fair amount of capital, and we could do it with three hundred million, and we could show that it's…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pinkowski: Nitricity almost fully pre-sold plant output with binding take-or-pay contracts
“We were able to fully sell out this factory before, almost fully sell out this factory before going into any of these finance conversations, so here is a stack of sales agreements binding multi-year take-or-pay sales agreements, and so we have the output of th…”
Assertion Partly supported
Pinkowski: Nitricity won a California sales tax exemption worth nearly $1M
“So we applied to a pretty ambitious sales tax exemption, and it's almost a million dollars worth of value because sales tax is so high in California. We won one of four of those in the state for recycling programs”
Disclosure
Pinkowski: Nitricity manufactures organic fertilizer using almond shells and renewable power
“We produce organic fertilizer using recycled organic almond shells and then air, water, and renewable power today.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Pinkowski: Nitricity shut down pilot facility to redesign failed reactor manifold
“As we built the pilot, and as we're scaling up, you know, our manifold design didn't work. And now we're in a situation where we had to shut the system down, and we had we had to redesign the whole manifold, and the challenging thing about this is that, you kn…”
Disclosure
Pinkowski: Nitricity saw a 500% inbound jump following Hormuz supply disruptions
“And compared to a baseline from before, we've seen about a 500% increase in the amount of inbound interest in the business.”
Assertion Supported
Pinkowski: Nitricity secured $6.5M via a grant and 48C tax credit
“We went after grants that could help cover the cost, and we got one grant and one that's helping cover the, some cost, and then we have one tax credit, a 48 C advanced manufacturing tax credit. So together, those come out to about six and a half million”
Assertion Partly supported
Pinkowski: Standard California almond plot size is 75 acres
“The California standard plot size for almonds, for example, is 75 acres. It's like this rectangle that's 75 acres, and sometimes you can get 25 acre blocks, but really, like, that's what you need, and 75 acres needs a lot of product, and so the minimum pilot s…”
Disclosure
Pinkowski: Fresno farmer feedback proved far more valuable than Silicon Valley's
“Early in our history, we created a prototype, and we talked about it here in Silicon Valley, and then we brought it down to Fresno County and talked about it. And the value of the feedback in Fresno County was just much more. And we got contracts, we got, you …”
What-if
Pinkowski: Diagnosing manifold failure at full scale would have taken over a year
“Our first design on something like this didn't work as we hoped, and we had to iterate, and it took, you know, many months, and it would have taken potentially a year or more at a larger scale.”